Art of Speculation
Chinese-Language AI Fundamentals & Macro, Concentrated Investing
Circle is a long-term buy because USDC is becoming the wallet of AI agents, which need autonomous, programmable micropayments that credit cards cannot handle. USDC already carries 99.8% of x402 agentic payments, and Circle launched Agent Stack. Per Mizuho, USDC's adjusted volume overtook Tether's this year. High-for-longer rates lift reserve income. At about 95x forward earnings and EPS seen falling 49% in 2026, the payoff is 2027-28, so a pullback is the better entry. x.comÂ
Circle's short-term targets of $145 and $165 now look hard to reach after a shooting-star candle, and the CLARITY Act's likely passage on Thursday could be a sell-the-news event that money front-runs. A final push before the vote is possible but unlikely. The wider market faces the same setup: a sell-the-news once the China visit lifts the S&P 500 to 7,500, and a pullback after OPEX week as market makers stop supporting stocks. x.comÂ
Circle still benefits from the large stablecoin trend and USDC's utility for businesses and users, so early AI-agent cash recommendations are no reason to turn bearish. Mizuho cut its target to $43 and sees a 10-20% reserve-revenue hit after sampled agents favored insured, higher-yield options over USDC. Few people let agents manage their money, and those who do are not a large share of USDC holders. Agent-only stablecoin payments may be overhyped. x.comÂ
Card networks like Visa and Mastercard and percentage-fee processors like PayPal face long-term disruption markets aren't pricing in, as AI agent payments settle in stablecoins. Per Circle's global markets head, AI agents completed 140 million payments worth $43 million in nine months, 98.6% settled in USDC, averaging $0.31. Visa and Mastercard won't disappear, but fee-free rails and USDC may cannibalize most of their future growth, while the market assumes Visa compounds forever. x.com x.comÂ
Circle is unlikely to win corporate treasuries, because companies holding mostly T-bills gain nothing by handing those assets to Circle so it can collect their yield. That answers @drGhostinOO7, who argues corporate treasuries are waiting to be tokenized and Circle can take market share from SWIFT. x.comÂ
AI agents will make micropayments natural, putting stablecoin rails like Circle at the center of the next leg of the AI trade. Micropayments failed for humans because of decision fatigue, but software can make thousands of tiny payments per API call, millisecond of compute, tool or ad bid. Bank-account dollars can't move at machine speed, so stablecoins move the money, crypto networks clear it and bitcoin is the neutral reserve. After chips, data centers and power, the financial rails come next. … Show more
Circle's USDC has a temporary EU go-to-market moat. The European Banking Authority gave USDC alone 'significant' stablecoin status among 45 e-money tokens under MiCA, adding a regulatory advantage to Circle's case as a sleeping giant. x.com x.comÂ
Circle's profits face growing pressure, and the market is starting to price that in. It earns most of its money from interest on USDC reserves, and Coinbase already takes about 50% of that revenue. USDC's $73 billion market cap trails Tether's $145 billion, and Open USD is adding pressure with zero minting fees and reserve income shared with over 140 partners. x.comÂ
Coinbase can earn from growing agentic payments through Base transaction fees and yield on dollars backing USDC on Base. Its x402 protocol lets agents pay instantly for web services with stablecoins; cumulative Base x402 transactions rose from 1.5K to 138.5M in five quarters. After a Q4 2025 testing jump, quarterly activity rose from 14M to 18M to 23M in 2026, which looks like accelerating organic use, not just testing. x.comÂ
Growing stablecoin payments and business adoption position Visa, Mastercard, Coinbase, Circle and PayPal for a massive shift in global payments. Stablecoins are moving from crypto speculation into real-world financial infrastructure; payments reached $482B year to date, up 45%. Autonomous AI-agent transactions may be the next frontier. x.comÂ
Circle's long-term multi-bagger thesis, that USDC becomes a key part of next-generation payment rails, no longer looks on track. In just the past few days, 140 entities, including many major names, partnered with OUSD, and Robinhood announced a 7% yield program via USDG. Circle can still be a successful business, and its fall to the targeted ~$64 entry level looks justified by fundamentals, so the 'Circle is poised to dominate' case is crumbling. x.comÂ
Circle sits on the winning end of stablecoins crossing from crypto trading into global money movement, because it keeps the Treasury yield on USDC reserves while paying holders nothing. The stablecoin market grew over 50% in a year to above $310 billion, and USDC circulation rose 19% to $73.3 billion, yielding about $668 million a quarter of near-pure interest income. More adoption means a bigger balance sheet and higher interest profits, making Circle an interest-rate bet on digital cash. x.comÂ
