Meta's core advertising business is significantly outgrowing its biggest competitors even before factoring in the newer businesses it is building. Q3 ad revenue rose 26% year over year, versus 10.6% at Alphabet and 10.9% at Amazon. Back at 19x forward earnings, Meta is the most undervalued Magnificent Seven stock. x.com  x.com 

Reddit's human conversations are gaining value as AI content proliferates, supporting advertiser spending and AI data licensing. Revenue grew 61% last quarter, with margins in the 40s, but US user growth slowed to 6%. Advertisers are paying more each quarter and AI labs pay for Reddit's data. Overweight; $200 target. x.com 

Reddit's worsening US user growth threatens its revenue runway despite elite ARPU growth, revenue growth and margin expansion. US daily users fell 2% year over year and missed estimates by 7%; the Q4 guide was weak. It needs healthier user growth in its most important market to dispel Google/AI discovery fears. Forward indicators do not look promising, and the trend of positive estimate revisions will end. x.com  x.com 

Reddit still looks undervalued as Needham's Q3 traffic tracker shows app downloads up 19% and web visitors up 2-3% quarter over quarter, adding to strong alternative data behind an expected Q3 beat and raise. Shares trade at 18x next-twelve-month EPS while revenue is growing 60-65% and EPS 65-70% year over year; new Anthropic, OpenAI or Gemini licensing deals remain possible over the next couple of months, not secured. x.com 

Reddit's logged-in users drive monetization, so weak search-driven traffic matters less than ARPU. Reddit says app and logged-in users grew sequentially in Q3 and generate over 80% of monetization, though lost search referrals also hurt them. ARPU rose 53% despite barely higher users; a low ad base could allow it to double even with muted growth. Restricting Google scraping might force a licensing deal that helps its Anthropic case and OpenAI renewal, though no deal is certain. x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more

Reddit's Q3 drop in US daily users risks another poor market reaction, even if headline earnings are strong. Last quarter a slight sequential decline in US daily users sent the shares down 20% despite a massive triple beat; the new chart shows a further sequential drop in Q3. x.com  x.com 

Meta's growth and earnings make its valuation appealing. It trades at 17x 2027 estimates with 17% EPS and 22% revenue growth. Its $140 billion EBITDA should make it worth more than Anthropic, which has none, though that comparison could be wrong. If distribution is king, Meta Muse could benefit from Meta's 3.64 billion daily active users, according to GuruFocus News. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Reddit is well placed as the source every AI model wants to license training data from, while its ad revenue booms. Q2 revenue rose 61% to $804.9 million, operating income more than tripled to $231.7 million and net income reached $252.8 million. At about 17 times two-year forward earnings, the stock isn't expensive. x.com  x.com 

Meta looks unattractive because its fines, capital raises and AI capex make the math ugly. The stock could trade back to the $500s, while hyperscalers probably have to make those raises with equity down 15-25%. Muse looks like a fad and average users may not need AI agents, matching LogicalThesis's view. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Reddit's US ARPU growth is more impressive than the market credits. It rose 40% since March to $14 per quarter, while trailing free cash flow reached about $1.2B in September. The US daily-user chart is less flattering. x.com  x.com