Reddit's logged-in users drive monetization, so weak search-driven traffic matters less than ARPU. Reddit says app and logged-in users grew sequentially in Q3 and generate over 80% of monetization, though lost search referrals also hurt them. ARPU rose 53% despite barely higher users; a low ad base could allow it to double even with muted growth. Restricting Google scraping might force a licensing deal that helps its Anthropic case and OpenAI renewal, though no deal is certain. x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more

Reddit's AI licensing is the wildcard that could make the stock run, as the market may have grown too negative on its renewals with Google and OpenAI. AI models need fresh human-generated data, and Reddit's is still undervalued. Revenue grew 61% last quarter, ad revenue 64%, and margins keep improving. Per BofA, Reddit should post the highest US and international ARPU growth of the social stocks it follows in Q3. Trading below the 200-day average is a risk, with support at $120-135. x.com  x.com 

Reddit's worsening US user growth threatens its revenue runway despite elite ARPU growth, revenue growth and margin expansion. US daily users fell 2% year over year and missed estimates by 7%; the Q4 guide was weak. It needs healthier user growth in its most important market to dispel Google/AI discovery fears. Forward indicators do not look promising, and the trend of positive estimate revisions will end. x.com  x.com 

Reddit's US ARPU growth is more impressive than the market credits. It rose 40% since March to $14 per quarter, while trailing free cash flow reached about $1.2B in September. The US daily-user chart is less flattering. x.com  x.com 

Reddit is turning into a high-margin AI data infrastructure business, with a path to over $500 million a year in data licensing. Its Google and OpenAI deals already bring in more than $130 million annually at margins above 90%, institutions own 93.5% of shares with $9.1 billion of net buying, and the market underestimates this. A post the author replies to cites Reddit's CEO saying Reddit is the most-cited source across LLMs, with S&P 500 inclusion and deal renewals on the horizon. x.com  x.com 

Google's AI Mode no longer drives traffic to Reddit, weakening its distribution. Reddit CEO Steve Huffman said Google still crawls Reddit heavily but no longer sends it the traffic it once did, and Reddit cannot count on that traffic returning. x.com 

Reddit's push toward required logins could improve targeting and monetization but may hinder search discovery and add friction for casual users. Revenue rose 53% to $895M and free cash flow reached $363M, yet overall user growth lagged despite a good showing from US logged-in users; stock-based pay was higher than desired. Google will probably pressure near-term DAU growth. The finances remain solid, but the login strategy's impact on growth needs more clarity. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Reddit is well placed as the source every AI model wants to license training data from, while its ad revenue booms. Q2 revenue rose 61% to $804.9 million, operating income more than tripled to $231.7 million and net income reached $252.8 million. At about 17 times two-year forward earnings, the stock isn't expensive. x.com  x.com 

Reddit's Q3 drop in US daily users risks another poor market reaction, even if headline earnings are strong. Last quarter a slight sequential decline in US daily users sent the shares down 20% despite a massive triple beat; the new chart shows a further sequential drop in Q3. x.com  x.com 

Reddit's post-earnings selloff is an overreaction, as the market treats it like a 2010s media publisher rather than an AI data utility. If Google's AI Overviews surface Reddit answers instead of sending clicks, that strengthens Reddit's leverage by proving LLMs cannot work without its 26B+ posts of human consensus. In-app retention is up 50% year over year, so the SEO-dependency panic is overstated. Flat licensing deals are phase one; the endgame is usage-based pricing for real-time AI context. … Show more