Reddit's logged-in users drive monetization, so weak search-driven traffic matters less than ARPU. Reddit says app and logged-in users grew sequentially in Q3 and generate over 80% of monetization, though lost search referrals also hurt them. ARPU rose 53% despite barely higher users; a low ad base could allow it to double even with muted growth. Restricting Google scraping might force a licensing deal that helps its Anthropic case and OpenAI renewal, though no deal is certain. x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more

Reddit's US ARPU growth is more impressive than the market credits. It rose 40% since March to $14 per quarter, while trailing free cash flow reached about $1.2B in September. The US daily-user chart is less flattering. x.com  x.com 

Reddit's worsening US user growth threatens its revenue runway despite elite ARPU growth, revenue growth and margin expansion. US daily users fell 2% year over year and missed estimates by 7%; the Q4 guide was weak. It needs healthier user growth in its most important market to dispel Google/AI discovery fears. Forward indicators do not look promising, and the trend of positive estimate revisions will end. x.com  x.com 

Alphabet's exceptional revenue growth and expanding margins make a discount attractive if the market offers one. Quarterly revenue reached $125 billion, up 25%; search is growing faster than YouTube ads. The disappointing result reflects a mark-to-market on SpaceX, while the earnings call sounded great. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Alphabet offers attractive risk/reward because its earlier equity raise suppressed the shares despite strong growth. The $80B-plus raise should suffice for now; another next year is uncertain. Search grew 17% in the prior results, while cloud revenue more than doubled in the latest. Investment losses, not the business, hit EPS; weaker free cash flow puts investors off. A search slowdown would be a warning flag, though Gemini and other businesses could soften the blow. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more

Reddit's Q3 drop in US daily users risks another poor market reaction, even if headline earnings are strong. Last quarter a slight sequential decline in US daily users sent the shares down 20% despite a massive triple beat; the new chart shows a further sequential drop in Q3. x.com  x.com 

Reddit's human conversations are gaining value as AI content proliferates, supporting advertiser spending and AI data licensing. Revenue grew 61% last quarter, with margins in the 40s, but US user growth slowed to 6%. Advertisers are paying more each quarter and AI labs pay for Reddit's data. Overweight; $200 target. x.com 

Alphabet's core Search growth is slowing while AI spending surges, making the selloff look deserved despite fast Cloud growth. Search growth fell from 19% to 17% to 12% over three quarters; Search now represents just under half of revenue. The stock could fall to $250, though Amazon is the preferred buy. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Reddit's stock is unlikely to rerate until it shows cleaner US daily user growth and less reliance on volatile search referrals, despite a strong financial engine. US DAUq grew only 6% versus 28% internationally, logged-in growth was just 7%, and management called search traffic volatile. The 100M US DAU goal looks further away, AI licensing showed no progress with other revenue up 24% to $43M, and the $860-870M Q3 revenue guide did not address user concerns. x.com 

Alphabet's five-point Search growth slowdown does not look concerning because FX was the biggest drag, alongside World Cup budget timing, an AI Mode monetization gap, APAC retail disruption from EU de minimis changes and a tougher comparison. Query growth hit a five-year high; AI Mode ad load is set to ramp after successful experiments, with ads expanding beyond the US. x.com  x.com