Reddit's worsening US user growth threatens its revenue runway despite elite ARPU growth, revenue growth and margin expansion. US daily users fell 2% year over year and missed estimates by 7%; the Q4 guide was weak. It needs healthier user growth in its most important market to dispel Google/AI discovery fears. Forward indicators do not look promising, and the trend of positive estimate revisions will end. x.com  x.com 

Reddit's Q3 drop in US daily users risks another poor market reaction, even if headline earnings are strong. Last quarter a slight sequential decline in US daily users sent the shares down 20% despite a massive triple beat; the new chart shows a further sequential drop in Q3. x.com  x.com 

Reddit's logged-in users drive monetization, so weak search-driven traffic matters less than ARPU. Reddit says app and logged-in users grew sequentially in Q3 and generate over 80% of monetization, though lost search referrals also hurt them. ARPU rose 53% despite barely higher users; a low ad base could allow it to double even with muted growth. Restricting Google scraping might force a licensing deal that helps its Anthropic case and OpenAI renewal, though no deal is certain. x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more

Reddit's share price is collapsing even as its fundamentals accelerate. Average revenue per US and international user is accelerating, growth is speeding up and the business is showing signs of operating leverage. x.com 

Reddit may face short-term pressure after Morgan Stanley cut its price target from $240 to $210 while keeping Overweight, adding risk premium for possibly slowing user growth and shifting Google traffic, especially AI Overviews reducing referrals. Morgan Stanley stays positive on revenue and EPS growth, and advertising, AI data licensing and Reddit Max remain long-term catalysts. Renewed strength in Google traffic and DAU/WAU growth could bring the target back up. x.com 

Reddit's push toward required logins could improve targeting and monetization but may hinder search discovery and add friction for casual users. Revenue rose 53% to $895M and free cash flow reached $363M, yet overall user growth lagged despite a good showing from US logged-in users; stock-based pay was higher than desired. Google will probably pressure near-term DAU growth. The finances remain solid, but the login strategy's impact on growth needs more clarity. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Alphabet's five-point Search growth slowdown does not look concerning because FX was the biggest drag, alongside World Cup budget timing, an AI Mode monetization gap, APAC retail disruption from EU de minimis changes and a tougher comparison. Query growth hit a five-year high; AI Mode ad load is set to ramp after successful experiments, with ads expanding beyond the US. x.com  x.com 

Google's AI Mode no longer drives traffic to Reddit, weakening its distribution. Reddit CEO Steve Huffman said Google still crawls Reddit heavily but no longer sends it the traffic it once did, and Reddit cannot count on that traffic returning. x.com 

Reddit's US ARPU growth is more impressive than the market credits. It rose 40% since March to $14 per quarter, while trailing free cash flow reached about $1.2B in September. The US daily-user chart is less flattering. x.com  x.com 

Reddit carries Pinterest-like downside to a 10x P/E if investors decide North American user growth is toast, while the stock is priced on everyone playing for big numbers from new lab deals. x.com