Reddit's worsening US user growth threatens its revenue runway despite elite ARPU growth, revenue growth and margin expansion. US daily users fell 2% year over year and missed estimates by 7%; the Q4 guide was weak. It needs healthier user growth in its most important market to dispel Google/AI discovery fears. Forward indicators do not look promising, and the trend of positive estimate revisions will end. x.com  x.com 

Google's Search ads face a growing threat because AI agents using Search do not click ads and people will increasingly use AI apps to search. A quoted Google comment says strong AI Mode query growth has brought lower monetization. Search makes 90% of Google's profits. x.com 

Reddit's logged-in users drive monetization, so weak search-driven traffic matters less than ARPU. Reddit says app and logged-in users grew sequentially in Q3 and generate over 80% of monetization, though lost search referrals also hurt them. ARPU rose 53% despite barely higher users; a low ad base could allow it to double even with muted growth. Restricting Google scraping might force a licensing deal that helps its Anthropic case and OpenAI renewal, though no deal is certain. x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more

Alphabet's search advertising is under attack as chatbot queries grow without matching ad revenue. Google blamed AI Mode on its earnings call. Search ads grew 12% and missed estimates, down from 19% in Q1 and 17% in Q2. Sentiment has completely flipped bearish as its search business shows signs of being eaten by AI. x.com  x.com 

AI search threatens Google's advertising economics because it competes with the ad business itself, potentially reducing the value advertisers receive. The bear case is that AI eats Google's Search ad business faster than Google's AI spending pays for itself. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Reddit's human conversations are gaining value as AI content proliferates, supporting advertiser spending and AI data licensing. Revenue grew 61% last quarter, with margins in the 40s, but US user growth slowed to 6%. Advertisers are paying more each quarter and AI labs pay for Reddit's data. Overweight; $200 target. x.com 

Google's search is becoming less profitable as AI agents disrupt its core business. Even perfect execution could make the transition painful, and Google is famously poor at new products. Its conduct over the past decade also raises stronger ethical objections than Meta's. Despite strong fundamentals, explosive cloud growth, no real risk and substantial growth ahead, Alphabet is unattractive relative to most other major AI companies. x.com 

Alphabet's search growth risks masking damage to its advertiser base. Google Ads advertiser Max Anderson says Google charges more for lower-quality clicks, weakens keyword targeting and exceeds budget caps as traditional searches shift to LLMs. This is a bear case for search, but AI capex need not fall with it: Google Cloud revenue has more than doubled, and AI spending is how Google largely defends search. x.com  x.com 

Reddit's push toward required logins could improve targeting and monetization but may hinder search discovery and add friction for casual users. Revenue rose 53% to $895M and free cash flow reached $363M, yet overall user growth lagged despite a good showing from US logged-in users; stock-based pay was higher than desired. Google will probably pressure near-term DAU growth. The finances remain solid, but the login strategy's impact on growth needs more clarity. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Alphabet's AI Mode monetizes less effectively than traditional Search, potentially threatening its Search business. AI drove the fastest Search query growth in five years, yet Search revenue growth slowed to 12%; defending Search makes even greater AI investment necessary, not optional. Google Cloud grew 103% year over year to a $123 billion annual run rate. The report could not have been better for the AI infrastructure trade, but its risks are bearish for Alphabet's stock. x.com