Danny cheng
Technology Investor, Homily Charts & Technical Analysis
IonQ is forming a massive cup pattern on heavy institutional accumulation, with institutions more than doubling their holdings over the past year. The quantum theme is also heating up, as Honeywell's Quantinuum IPO is reportedly 20x oversubscribed and begins trading today. x.comÂ
Quantum computing stocks D-Wave and IonQ show strong demand after the US pledged funding, with large high-volume buying in D-Wave. D-Wave has clear relative strength in the sector, with IonQ leading the charge. A move above $31.55 would break D-Wave out of its inside week and daily consolidation, and its all-time high could be broken fast. x.comÂ
IonQ's $2 billion offering adds dilution risk without a quantum breakthrough. Chapman and Ballance's predicted 'ChatGPT moment' windows have elapsed; a circulated transcript has Monroe saying commercialization is 'probably not in 5 years.' The offering includes 50 million shares or equivalents and seven-year warrants for another 100 million. An up-to-$1.3 billion all-stock cybersecurity acquisition accompanies de Masi's claim that Q-Day is coming faster than predicted. x.comÂ
IonQ still looks like the quantum computing leader even though it was not directly named among the nine companies sharing the Trump administration's $2 billion in quantum grants. IBM is getting $1 billion and GlobalFoundries $375 million, with D-Wave, Rigetti, Infleqtion, Atom Computing, PsiQuantum and Quantinuum also listed. A move above 65.5 would mark continuation. x.comÂ
IonQ's growing backlog and faster chip production strengthen its bullish case by securing future revenue and shortening production time. Q2 revenue jumped 287% YoY to $80M, beating expectations for a fifth straight quarter; backlog quadrupled to $485M and 2026 revenue guidance rose to $450M-$460M. SkyWater cuts chip production from nine to two months; 256-qubit bookings opened for early 2027 delivery, and the $1.3B Elisity acquisition targets quantum cybersecurity. x.comÂ
IonQ is hurting shareholders with a $2B raise to fund an acquisition that makes its business worse. Raising the money was a choice, not a necessity. The offering includes 20.5M common shares at $40 each and pre-funded warrants to purchase 29.5M shares at $40 per warrant, plus seven-year warrants for another 100M shares at $69.46. x.com x.comÂ
IonQ's capital infusion strengthens its fundamentals despite the dilution cost to shareholders. Elisity cost the company no additional capital because the acquisition was paid entirely in stock. x.com x.comÂ
IonQ has assembled quite a few great assets by buying its way to legitimacy with an inflated stock price, including SkyWater's unique, mission-critical fab and Oxford Ionics. The CEO is a joke, but it never pays to bet against someone who can buy their way to success. x.comÂ
IonQ is priced as a story, not a company: with annual revenue under $50 million, its valuation bets on the most optimistic version of quantum computing a decade from now. The market now rewards narrative over earnings and punishes a single missed quarter. That can last a long time when liquidity is ample and risk appetite high, as dot-com stocks in 1999 and SPACs in 2021 showed, so a drop is not imminent. Buyers chasing it are buying how long sentiment lasts, not company value. x.comÂ
IonQ, Rigetti and Infleqtion are the next stocks Trump is effectively calling, now that he says the US aims to have a quantum computer for scientific discovery by 2028. His earlier signals preceded big gains in Intel, Dell and Micron. x.comÂ