Terry
Private Fund Portfolio Manager & Trader
IonQ is priced as a story, not a company: with annual revenue under $50 million, its valuation bets on the most optimistic version of quantum computing a decade from now. The market now rewards narrative over earnings and punishes a single missed quarter. That can last a long time when liquidity is ample and risk appetite high, as dot-com stocks in 1999 and SPACs in 2021 showed, so a drop is not imminent. Buyers chasing it are buying how long sentiment lasts, not company value. x.comÂ
IonQ's $2 billion offering adds dilution risk without a quantum breakthrough. Chapman and Ballance's predicted 'ChatGPT moment' windows have elapsed; a circulated transcript has Monroe saying commercialization is 'probably not in 5 years.' The offering includes 50 million shares or equivalents and seven-year warrants for another 100 million. An up-to-$1.3 billion all-stock cybersecurity acquisition accompanies de Masi's claim that Q-Day is coming faster than predicted. x.comÂ
IonQ trades at a trailing P/E of 665 while its real delivery is around 2030, so expect two mega crashes before then. It remains the strongest and most logical quantum computing company in the world, worth buying after those crashes for those who can resist FOMO. A reply notes the trailing P/E says little and forward figures matter more. x.com x.comÂ
IonQ's growing backlog and faster chip production strengthen its bullish case by securing future revenue and shortening production time. Q2 revenue jumped 287% YoY to $80M, beating expectations for a fifth straight quarter; backlog quadrupled to $485M and 2026 revenue guidance rose to $450M-$460M. SkyWater cuts chip production from nine to two months; 256-qubit bookings opened for early 2027 delivery, and the $1.3B Elisity acquisition targets quantum cybersecurity. x.comÂ
IonQ's acquisition of Elisity may make strategic sense but looks like a terrible deal at up to $1.3 billion, paid entirely in IonQ shares. The microsegmentation startup would cost roughly 9% of the company. x.comÂ
Quantum computing looks more like a scam the closer one looks, with IonQ and Rigetti sustained by delusion that keeps the funding flywheel spinning. IonQ's CEO claimed last year its quantum compute would overtake Nvidia's by 2027. Rigetti's CEO essentially said meaningful revenue is not coming soon, after selling his shares. Google's Sundar Pichai shows little interest in its quantum program, and OpenAI and Anthropic keep quantum researchers mainly as a just-in-case. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Elisity could let IonQ earn security revenue before quantum computing reaches mass adoption. Its network controls complement quantum-safe encryption as customers prepare for harvest-now-decrypt-later attacks; AI agents could add demand. IonQ is now one of the most strategically important quantum security plays, but the roughly $1.3B deal adds integration risk amid strong competitors. Investors must watch whether security revenue grows organically or through more acquisitions. x.comÂ
IonQ's management has shifted from talking about technology to acquisitions, a warning sign. It bought a low-quality SkyWater fab and Oxford Ionics, a 40-person team hitting 99.99% two-qubit fidelity but at about 10,000 nanoseconds, while Google, IBM and Rigetti teams are at 25-30 ns. IonQ's earlier technology may be phased out, forcing a pivot, and customer announcements look aimed at steering attention from tech comparisons. Without far higher fidelity at speed, it is garbage in, garbage out. … Show more
IonQ, Rigetti Computing and D-Wave Quantum have no business model, so their cash flows can't be predicted. They are awful companies whose appeal rests on speculation, and that should die out when the market turns. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Quantum computing is a race whose winners get pricing power over the hardest problems; Google's CEO says quantum is where AI was five years ago. IonQ leads with Q2 revenue of $80.1 million, up 287%. D-Wave alone is in commercial production; Rigetti grew revenue 173%. IBM targets fault tolerance in 2029, Alphabet's Willow began the cycle, Xanadu is photonic, Infleqtion has federal backing, Quantum Computing Inc. is speculative, Arqit sells post-quantum security; an ETF holds the field. x.com … Show more
Quantinuum's IPO will show the market how far IonQ, Rigetti and D-Wave lag on logical qubits, the metric that matters for fault-tolerant computing, and that gap will soon be priced. Quantinuum has 48 logical qubits on Helios versus zero or few at the listed names. The IPO crowns the fault-tolerance leader, not the sector winner: IonQ pursues vertical integration across networking, security and defense, Rigetti bets on superconducting scale, and all must turn capability into revenue. x.comÂ
