Paradis
AI & Technology Investment Research
Quantum computing looks more like a scam the closer one looks, with IonQ and Rigetti sustained by delusion that keeps the funding flywheel spinning. IonQ's CEO claimed last year its quantum compute would overtake Nvidia's by 2027. Rigetti's CEO essentially said meaningful revenue is not coming soon, after selling his shares. Google's Sundar Pichai shows little interest in its quantum program, and OpenAI and Anthropic keep quantum researchers mainly as a just-in-case. x.com x.com x.comÂ
IonQ is priced as a story, not a company: with annual revenue under $50 million, its valuation bets on the most optimistic version of quantum computing a decade from now. The market now rewards narrative over earnings and punishes a single missed quarter. That can last a long time when liquidity is ample and risk appetite high, as dot-com stocks in 1999 and SPACs in 2021 showed, so a drop is not imminent. Buyers chasing it are buying how long sentiment lasts, not company value. x.comÂ
IonQ, Rigetti and D-Wave are not worth owning except at basement-level valuations because quantum computing still does not solve commercially useful problems at scale. Government R&D money has flowed for over 30 years and is spread across the field; it is not an investment thesis, and AI-scale capital is nowhere close. Physics and engineering barriers remain and timelines keep shifting, possibly 5-15 years out, so the sector likely bleeds out more. Classical AI is the real revolution. x.com … Show more
Quantum computing is a race whose winners get pricing power over the hardest problems; Google's CEO says quantum is where AI was five years ago. IonQ leads with Q2 revenue of $80.1 million, up 287%. D-Wave alone is in commercial production; Rigetti grew revenue 173%. IBM targets fault tolerance in 2029, Alphabet's Willow began the cycle, Xanadu is photonic, Infleqtion has federal backing, Quantum Computing Inc. is speculative, Arqit sells post-quantum security; an ETF holds the field. x.com … Show more
Rigetti Computing is far less capitalized and technologically advanced than superconducting rivals IBM and Google, which spend more on R&D than Rigetti's entire market cap. Its chiplet design looks more like useful IP for an acquirer than a sign it will outperform them. Bulls citing 99.9% fidelity overlook that this level is useless for quantum computing, and the bull case rests on blind faith rather than capital or buildout. x.com x.comÂ
Quantum Computing Inc. is premature as an investment and not a serious contender to bring TFLN photonics into the data center. Its billion-dollar roll-up strategy, funded by share issuance, brings a lot of execution risk and management has much to prove. Its Arizona Fab 1 runs as a 150-mm TFLN development and foundry facility preparing to ramp. Direct quantum computing is a mid-2030s story, though government-funded component sellers can earn revenue, so it stays on the watchlist. x.comÂ
IonQ, Rigetti and Infleqtion are the next stocks Trump is effectively calling, now that he says the US aims to have a quantum computer for scientific discovery by 2028. His earlier signals preceded big gains in Intel, Dell and Micron. x.comÂ
IonQ trades at a trailing P/E of 665 while its real delivery is around 2030, so expect two mega crashes before then. It remains the strongest and most logical quantum computing company in the world, worth buying after those crashes for those who can resist FOMO. A reply notes the trailing P/E says little and forward figures matter more. x.com x.comÂ
IonQ's $2 billion offering adds dilution risk without a quantum breakthrough. Chapman and Ballance's predicted 'ChatGPT moment' windows have elapsed; a circulated transcript has Monroe saying commercialization is 'probably not in 5 years.' The offering includes 50 million shares or equivalents and seven-year warrants for another 100 million. An up-to-$1.3 billion all-stock cybersecurity acquisition accompanies de Masi's claim that Q-Day is coming faster than predicted. x.comÂ
Quantum computing is becoming a strategic policy priority, with the latest executive order adding to capital already flowing into the theme. Pure-play hardware names IonQ, Infleqtion, Rigetti, D-Wave and Quantum Computing, plus diversified anchor IBM, stand to gain. It is still early, but momentum keeps building. x.comÂ
Quantinuum's IPO will show the market how far IonQ, Rigetti and D-Wave lag on logical qubits, the metric that matters for fault-tolerant computing, and that gap will soon be priced. Quantinuum has 48 logical qubits on Helios versus zero or few at the listed names. The IPO crowns the fault-tolerance leader, not the sector winner: IonQ pursues vertical integration across networking, security and defense, Rigetti bets on superconducting scale, and all must turn capability into revenue. x.comÂ
