Futurist
Photonics, Space, AI Infrastructure & Robotics Commentary
Quantum computing is becoming a strategic policy priority, with the latest executive order adding to capital already flowing into the theme. Pure-play hardware names IonQ, Infleqtion, Rigetti, D-Wave and Quantum Computing, plus diversified anchor IBM, stand to gain. It is still early, but momentum keeps building. x.comÂ
Quantum computing could take off the way AI did, with Alphabet's CEO calling it 'where AI was 5 years ago,' per Kalshi. IBM at $235, IonQ at $40, D-Wave Quantum at $20 and Quantum Computing Inc. at $9 offer a chance to get in before it takes off. x.comÂ
IonQ, Rigetti and Infleqtion are the next stocks Trump is effectively calling, now that he says the US aims to have a quantum computer for scientific discovery by 2028. His earlier signals preceded big gains in Intel, Dell and Micron. x.comÂ
Quantum computing looks more like a scam the closer one looks, with IonQ and Rigetti sustained by delusion that keeps the funding flywheel spinning. IonQ's CEO claimed last year its quantum compute would overtake Nvidia's by 2027. Rigetti's CEO essentially said meaningful revenue is not coming soon, after selling his shares. Google's Sundar Pichai shows little interest in its quantum program, and OpenAI and Anthropic keep quantum researchers mainly as a just-in-case. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Quantum computing is a race whose winners get pricing power over the hardest problems; Google's CEO says quantum is where AI was five years ago. IonQ leads with Q2 revenue of $80.1 million, up 287%. D-Wave alone is in commercial production; Rigetti grew revenue 173%. IBM targets fault tolerance in 2029, Alphabet's Willow began the cycle, Xanadu is photonic, Infleqtion has federal backing, Quantum Computing Inc. is speculative, Arqit sells post-quantum security; an ETF holds the field. x.com … Show more
IonQ, Rigetti Computing and D-Wave Quantum have new government deals, which should drive a strong rally today after an initial pullback at the open. x.comÂ
Quantum Computing Inc. is premature as an investment and not a serious contender to bring TFLN photonics into the data center. Its billion-dollar roll-up strategy, funded by share issuance, brings a lot of execution risk and management has much to prove. Its Arizona Fab 1 runs as a 150-mm TFLN development and foundry facility preparing to ramp. Direct quantum computing is a mid-2030s story, though government-funded component sellers can earn revenue, so it stays on the watchlist. x.comÂ
Quantum computing could create up to $2.7 trillion of value by 2035, per McKinsey, and these five names can benefit before it fully arrives. IonQ already sells machine access through Amazon, Microsoft and Google and has US military contracts. Ciena builds quantum-safe encryption into its networking gear, and Arqit already sells quantum-proof software to the UK government, Northrop Grumman and Verizon. MKS Instruments supplies every builder; the Defiance Quantum ETF spreads risk over 89 stocks. … Show more
Not owning a small slice of quantum computing is riskier than owning one. May brought about $2B of incentives to IBM, GlobalFoundries, Rigetti and others; June brought two executive orders targeting post-quantum cryptography and useful quantum computing by 2028; China ranked quantum first among future industries; and IBM and the University of Chicago ran a 70-logical-qubit computation classical computers can't simulate. Plays: SEALSQ, GlobalFoundries, Coherent, Keysight, FormFactor. x.comÂ
Quantinuum's IPO will show the market how far IonQ, Rigetti and D-Wave lag on logical qubits, the metric that matters for fault-tolerant computing, and that gap will soon be priced. Quantinuum has 48 logical qubits on Helios versus zero or few at the listed names. The IPO crowns the fault-tolerance leader, not the sector winner: IonQ pursues vertical integration across networking, security and defense, Rigetti bets on superconducting scale, and all must turn capability into revenue. x.comÂ
Quantum computing stocks such as IonQ, Rigetti, Quantum Computing Inc, Arqit, SEALSQ, BTQ and HQ could catch a bid around Quantinuum's IPO. Quantinuum is raising about $1.46 billion at a roughly $14 billion valuation, the first traditional IPO of a full-stack quantum company, anchored by long-only demand. Big IPOs reprice whole sectors as allocators who missed the deal seek liquid exposure, as with Cerebras and SpaceX. The driver is positioning, not fundamentals, so these are very risky trades. … Show more
