Temple 8 Research
AI Buildout, Macro & Energy Infrastructure Research
Quantum Computing Inc. is premature as an investment and not a serious contender to bring TFLN photonics into the data center. Its billion-dollar roll-up strategy, funded by share issuance, brings a lot of execution risk and management has much to prove. Its Arizona Fab 1 runs as a 150-mm TFLN development and foundry facility preparing to ramp. Direct quantum computing is a mid-2030s story, though government-funded component sellers can earn revenue, so it stays on the watchlist. x.comÂ
Quantum Computing Inc. cannot compete in thin-film lithium niobate because it is stuck on 6-inch wafers, while commercial scale needs 8-inch. TFLN is extremely difficult to yield on 8-inch wafers, and only four companies have done it: NGK, GHH, Nanjing Liobate and, as of last month, Silicon Austria Labs. x.comÂ
Quantum Computing Inc. is a fake quantum company: its revenue all comes from acquisitions, shows no real top-line acceleration and is not even quantum-related. The company used to be called Innovative Beverage Group Holdings. A $3 billion market cap on $3 million of acquired revenue makes the retail-driven rally a great opportunity to short again. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Quantum computing looks more like a scam the closer one looks, with IonQ and Rigetti sustained by delusion that keeps the funding flywheel spinning. IonQ's CEO claimed last year its quantum compute would overtake Nvidia's by 2027. Rigetti's CEO essentially said meaningful revenue is not coming soon, after selling his shares. Google's Sundar Pichai shows little interest in its quantum program, and OpenAI and Anthropic keep quantum researchers mainly as a just-in-case. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Trump's executive order for a US quantum computer at a national lab by 2028, with the post-quantum encryption deadline pulled to 2031, makes quantum a strategic industry funded like chips and nuclear. Rigetti, D-Wave and Infleqtion each got $100M with the government as shareholder. IonQ leads on revenue via direct defense contracts, with Q1 revenue up 755% to $64.7M. Quantum Computing Inc is a lottery ticket at ~635x sales; the Defiance ETF is a basket. Backing de-risks science, not valuations. … Show more
IonQ, Rigetti and Infleqtion are the next stocks Trump is effectively calling, now that he says the US aims to have a quantum computer for scientific discovery by 2028. His earlier signals preceded big gains in Intel, Dell and Micron. x.comÂ
Quantum component and foundry suppliers such as GlobalFoundries have been the better way to own the quantum cycle than pure plays. Over the past year the four quantum pure plays averaged -10.6% while seven component and metrology names, including GlobalFoundries, averaged +156%, and the Defiance Quantum ETF rose 54.9%. Most of the component gains, though, came from AI demand. US Commerce Department equity funding lowers financing risk for the industry, not technology risk. x.comÂ
Quantum computing is becoming a strategic policy priority, with the latest executive order adding to capital already flowing into the theme. Pure-play hardware names IonQ, Infleqtion, Rigetti, D-Wave and Quantum Computing, plus diversified anchor IBM, stand to gain. It is still early, but momentum keeps building. x.comÂ
Quantum computing could create up to $2.7 trillion of value by 2035, per McKinsey, and these five names can benefit before it fully arrives. IonQ already sells machine access through Amazon, Microsoft and Google and has US military contracts. Ciena builds quantum-safe encryption into its networking gear, and Arqit already sells quantum-proof software to the UK government, Northrop Grumman and Verizon. MKS Instruments supplies every builder; the Defiance Quantum ETF spreads risk over 89 stocks. … Show more
IonQ, Rigetti and D-Wave are not worth owning except at basement-level valuations because quantum computing still does not solve commercially useful problems at scale. Government R&D money has flowed for over 30 years and is spread across the field; it is not an investment thesis, and AI-scale capital is nowhere close. Physics and engineering barriers remain and timelines keep shifting, possibly 5-15 years out, so the sector likely bleeds out more. Classical AI is the real revolution. x.com … Show more
Quantum computing is a race whose winners get pricing power over the hardest problems; Google's CEO says quantum is where AI was five years ago. IonQ leads with Q2 revenue of $80.1 million, up 287%. D-Wave alone is in commercial production; Rigetti grew revenue 173%. IBM targets fault tolerance in 2029, Alphabet's Willow began the cycle, Xanadu is photonic, Infleqtion has federal backing, Quantum Computing Inc. is speculative, Arqit sells post-quantum security; an ETF holds the field. x.com … Show more
IonQ trades at a trailing P/E of 665 while its real delivery is around 2030, so expect two mega crashes before then. It remains the strongest and most logical quantum computing company in the world, worth buying after those crashes for those who can resist FOMO. A reply notes the trailing P/E says little and forward figures matter more. x.com x.comÂ
