Photon Capital
Photonics & Semiconductor Research
Quantum component and foundry suppliers such as GlobalFoundries have been the better way to own the quantum cycle than pure plays. Over the past year the four quantum pure plays averaged -10.6% while seven component and metrology names, including GlobalFoundries, averaged +156%, and the Defiance Quantum ETF rose 54.9%. Most of the component gains, though, came from AI demand. US Commerce Department equity funding lowers financing risk for the industry, not technology risk. x.comÂ
Quantum computers of every type must ultimately be wired together with light, making optical interconnect component and foundry suppliers the bet while the qubit race has no winner. Beyond one chip, fridge or trap, all four qubit families converge on telecom photons, fiber and single-photon detectors. IonQ buying optical interconnect firms and $2B of CHIPS Act intent centered on GlobalFoundries' and IBM's quantum foundries point the same way; listed exposure includes Tower and Coherent. x.com x.comÂ
GlobalFoundries' $375M government contract to develop quantum products shows the advantage of not being a pure play. Its established business already lets it fund expansion without dilution while its higher-margin photonics business is set to double, so the stock can keep grinding higher as it proves itself the co-packaged optics foundry leader. x.comÂ
Quantum computing's suppliers get paid whoever's machine wins, as steel mills did while most railroads went bankrupt. Chips, test benches, cryogenic freezers, inspection, lasers, vacuum gear and light must be bought regardless. Washington signed nine letters of intent worth about $2.013 billion before any machine was built, half to the one recipient with a working foundry. Only one name is in its buy zone; the rest await lower prices. Two flat quarters of cryogenic and control orders ends it. … Show more
GlobalFoundries' new silicon germanium capacity deal with Marvell doesn't fix its position, because its SiGe is mediocre next to Tower's, though the gap is smaller than in silicon photonics. Semtech, and likely Macom, use Tower. x.com x.comÂ
The US government becoming a quantum investor makes some exposure to quantum computing stocks sensible, including IBM, GlobalFoundries, D-Wave, Rigetti and Infleqtion. x.com x.comÂ
GlobalFoundries is heavily underrated: it will be the leading quantum foundry, and no one is pricing it as a robotics foundry. It should win a large slice of the robotics and IoT market, with motor controls, sensor fusion and communication microcontrollers running on its 22nm FDX process. It is the preferred pick among quantum plays. x.com x.comÂ
Reported government-backed investment in GlobalFoundries' manufacturing makes it the next core holding candidate. A quoted Insiderwave post says the US government will add $955 million to its stake, taking its total investment to $1.63 billion, and Japan will put $21 billion into New York semiconductor facilities that GlobalFoundries would run. x.comÂ
Quantum computing has become US industrial policy rather than an experimental sector, now that the Trump administration is investing $2 billion for equity stakes in quantum companies. Per The Kobeissi Letter, citing the WSJ, IBM gets $1 billion for a quantum chip foundry in Albany, GlobalFoundries $375 million for quantum manufacturing, and D-Wave and Rigetti $100 million each. D-Wave and Rigetti jumped roughly 25% or more on the announcement. x.comÂ
GlobalFoundries is the preferred strategic pick among recent momentum leaders, while D-Wave and Rigetti are much more speculative. No one can compete with TSMC, which would already be the most valuable company if China were not a cloud over it, but price matters: GlobalFoundries is a smaller company with momentum, up about fourfold this year. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Quantum computing stocks D-Wave Quantum, Rigetti and Infleqtion now trade on fiscal support rather than technology: in May 2026 the US government put about $2 billion into the sector and took equity stakes as a condition, sending the three up roughly 30-33% in a day. Positions should be sized like lottery tickets. x.comÂ
Not owning a small slice of quantum computing is riskier than owning one. May brought about $2B of incentives to IBM, GlobalFoundries, Rigetti and others; June brought two executive orders targeting post-quantum cryptography and useful quantum computing by 2028; China ranked quantum first among future industries; and IBM and the University of Chicago ran a 70-logical-qubit computation classical computers can't simulate. Plays: SEALSQ, GlobalFoundries, Coherent, Keysight, FormFactor. x.comÂ
