The Few Bets That Matter
Concentrated Equity Investor, AI Infrastructure
GlobalFoundries' $375M government contract to develop quantum products shows the advantage of not being a pure play. Its established business already lets it fund expansion without dilution while its higher-margin photonics business is set to double, so the stock can keep grinding higher as it proves itself the co-packaged optics foundry leader. x.comÂ
GlobalFoundries is the next Soitec, a stable giant left behind by a sluggish core business that is finally being recognized as earnings show the truth. It plans core-business growth in FY26 and a doubling of photonics, with some higher-margin products oversubscribed until FY27. As an established player it can fund expansion without dilution and has a more established R&D and scaling roadmap. It won't jump 100% in a week, but should grind higher as it shows it can lead CPO foundry work. x.comÂ
GlobalFoundries' Xanadu partnership strengthens its position as a shared quantum-manufacturing platform across architectures. Its Malta fab will develop ultra-low-loss SiN photonics and superconducting nanowire detectors, alongside up to $375M in US quantum R&D funding. It ranked first of 23 companies in the earlier quantum map; production volumes and revenue remain undisclosed, with process transfer and yield validation still ahead. x.comÂ
GlobalFoundries is heavily underrated: it will be the leading quantum foundry, and no one is pricing it as a robotics foundry. It should win a large slice of the robotics and IoT market, with motor controls, sensor fusion and communication microcontrollers running on its 22nm FDX process. It is the preferred pick among quantum plays. x.com x.comÂ
GlobalFoundries' new silicon germanium capacity deal with Marvell doesn't fix its position, because its SiGe is mediocre next to Tower's, though the gap is smaller than in silicon photonics. Semtech, and likely Macom, use Tower. x.com x.comÂ
Reported government-backed investment in GlobalFoundries' manufacturing makes it the next core holding candidate. A quoted Insiderwave post says the US government will add $955 million to its stake, taking its total investment to $1.63 billion, and Japan will put $21 billion into New York semiconductor facilities that GlobalFoundries would run. x.comÂ
Quantum component and foundry suppliers such as GlobalFoundries have been the better way to own the quantum cycle than pure plays. Over the past year the four quantum pure plays averaged -10.6% while seven component and metrology names, including GlobalFoundries, averaged +156%, and the Defiance Quantum ETF rose 54.9%. Most of the component gains, though, came from AI demand. US Commerce Department equity funding lowers financing risk for the industry, not technology risk. x.comÂ
GlobalFoundries looks expensive against its earnings. It trades at 36 times trailing and 17 times next year's earnings, while chipmakers usually get 18 times. Applying 18 times to mid-cycle EPS of $1.41, give or take 12%, gives a fair value of $22.29-28.36, so the stock sits 58% above the top of that range; trailing and forward readings differ widely. This is a valuation read only, with no fundamental work behind it. x.comÂ
GlobalFoundries is the most underappreciated foundry in the AI supply chain. x.comÂ
GlobalFoundries' new silicon photonics collaboration with SiVers is a small but real sign that its photonics roadmap is pulling in laser partners as AI bandwidth needs grow. SiVers' laser arrays will go into reference designs on GlobalFoundries' platform and its SCALE co-packaged optics engine, covering co-packaged and linear pluggable optics and other data-center interconnects. No financial terms were disclosed; the news matters more for SiVers; for GlobalFoundries it is neutral to bullish. … Show more
GlobalFoundries looks like a value trap next to TSMC's growth, as a comparison chart illustrates. x.comÂ
Sivers Semiconductors' new GlobalFoundries collaboration, combined with a bounce off its 20-day EMA near 59 SEK, points to another move higher. Per @ren_stocks, Sivers' laser arrays will be integrated into GlobalFoundries' silicon photonics reference designs and its SCALE co-packaged light-engine platform, putting its lasers across CPO, LPO and other data center interconnects through a tier-1 foundry. x.comÂ
