GrowthTurtle
Data Science PhD & IEEE Fellow, Ex-Two Sigma
GlobalFoundries looks expensive against its earnings. It trades at 36 times trailing and 17 times next year's earnings, while chipmakers usually get 18 times. Applying 18 times to mid-cycle EPS of $1.41, give or take 12%, gives a fair value of $22.29-28.36, so the stock sits 58% above the top of that range; trailing and forward readings differ widely. This is a valuation read only, with no fundamental work behind it. x.comÂ
GlobalFoundries looks like a value trap next to TSMC's growth, as a comparison chart illustrates. x.comÂ
Tower Semiconductor's 2028 guidance makes its shares attractively valued around $180 despite competition from Silith, GlobalFoundries, STMicroelectronics and others. The stock previously felt too rich to add to. x.com x.comÂ
GlobalFoundries is a 2027-2028 optical rerating story, not a month-and-a-half trade in 2026. It trades at about 11.5x forward earnings ending 2028 and 7.5x longer term. @jusmentrades cites a ~$76 average Wall Street target, a raised 50-60% growth outlook for data center and communications on silicon photonics and SiGe for AI optical networking, a first dividend and CHIPS Act support. x.comÂ
UMC is preferred to GlobalFoundries: its 12nm partnership with Intel targets US production in 2027, offering a way to win customers without building its own US fab. Longer term, logic folding could improve established-node chips without smaller transistors, though UMC has announced no such program and revenue could take years. Shares have recovered, making the entry less attractive; royalty terms are unclear. x.comÂ
Improving earnings and more attractive valuations favor AI infrastructure names Nvidia, Micron, Broadcom and TSMC. Goldman Sachs charts put memory stocks at about 4 times two-year forward earnings versus an 8 times median, and large fabless chip stocks at about 13 times versus 18 times. x.comÂ
GlobalFoundries combines strong earnings with a new quantum catalyst and a breakout that leaves no overhead resistance. x.comÂ
Sivers Semiconductors' new GlobalFoundries collaboration, combined with a bounce off its 20-day EMA near 59 SEK, points to another move higher. Per @ren_stocks, Sivers' laser arrays will be integrated into GlobalFoundries' silicon photonics reference designs and its SCALE co-packaged light-engine platform, putting its lasers across CPO, LPO and other data center interconnects through a tier-1 foundry. x.comÂ
Micron's valuation looks ridiculous given the street's eight-year EPS estimates, even with a projected 2028 earnings peak and subsequent decline. At under $900, it trades at 5.09 times this year's expected EPS of $176.55. If consensus plays out, 2027-34 EPS would total $921.56, more than the share price; if analysts are wrong about when EPS peaks, Micron would look even cheaper. x.comÂ
GlobalFoundries' margins should rise relative to Tower Semiconductor's, if reports on each company's 8-inch to 12-inch transition and capacity ramp are correct, even though both now have similar net margins. GlobalFoundries also trades at a much cheaper multiple than Tower. x.comÂ
Micron deserves 10-12x forward earnings rather than 6.2x, and its latest quarter only strengthened the bull case. Revenue reached $54.23B, up 379% year over year, and EPS $33.42, up 1,003%; next-quarter guidance is $62B revenue and $38.15 EPS versus estimates of $58B and $35.92. The market fears growth and demand could suddenly stop, but no one can time when or if that happens, whether in 1, 2, 3 or 5 years. It might not deserve 20x. x.comÂ
