Serenity
AI & Semiconductor Supply-Chain Researcher, Trader
GlobalFoundries is a 2027-2028 optical rerating story, not a month-and-a-half trade in 2026. It trades at about 11.5x forward earnings ending 2028 and 7.5x longer term. @jusmentrades cites a ~$76 average Wall Street target, a raised 50-60% growth outlook for data center and communications on silicon photonics and SiGe for AI optical networking, a first dividend and CHIPS Act support. x.comÂ
GlobalFoundries can earn from new US fabs without paying to build them. A US-Japan government-owned vehicle would fund and own up to $21B of buildings and tools across two fabs; GF would supply technology and operate them for fees plus an EBITDA share for at least 20 years. The first fab is expected to add about 900,000 wafers a year, with first output in 2029; management projects about $3B of cumulative free cash flow over ten years from that fab alone. Definitive agreements remain unsigned. … Show more
GlobalFoundries' margins should rise relative to Tower Semiconductor's, if reports on each company's 8-inch to 12-inch transition and capacity ramp are correct, even though both now have similar net margins. GlobalFoundries also trades at a much cheaper multiple than Tower. x.comÂ
GlobalFoundries looks expensive against its earnings. It trades at 36 times trailing and 17 times next year's earnings, while chipmakers usually get 18 times. Applying 18 times to mid-cycle EPS of $1.41, give or take 12%, gives a fair value of $22.29-28.36, so the stock sits 58% above the top of that range; trailing and forward readings differ widely. This is a valuation read only, with no fundamental work behind it. x.comÂ
GlobalFoundries combines strong earnings with a new quantum catalyst and a breakout that leaves no overhead resistance. x.comÂ
Applied Optoelectronics' possible 2028 revenue makes even a 100% takeover premium too small if it delivers on 2027-28 expectations. Revenue of $6-8B in calendar 2028 at an illustrative 8x multiple would imply about $56B in market value, versus $7B today. That is the upside worth holding out for. x.comÂ
GlobalFoundries looks like a value trap next to TSMC's growth, as a comparison chart illustrates. x.comÂ
Tower Semiconductor's 2028 guidance makes its shares attractively valued around $180 despite competition from Silith, GlobalFoundries, STMicroelectronics and others. The stock previously felt too rich to add to. x.com x.comÂ
Fabrinet trades at about 17x consensus FY2027 earnings despite 45% revenue growth last quarter. Data-center revenue rose 68% and now accounts for 51% of sales; consensus expects roughly 29% EPS growth in FY2027. Ramp delays and component shortages could defer that growth, and capacity spending still needs to produce cash flow as production scales. x.comÂ
GlobalFoundries' new silicon germanium capacity deal with Marvell doesn't fix its position, because its SiGe is mediocre next to Tower's, though the gap is smaller than in silicon photonics. Semtech, and likely Macom, use Tower. x.com x.comÂ
GlobalFoundries is the most underappreciated foundry in the AI supply chain. x.comÂ
