Alex A.C.
Value/GARP Investor, Semiconductor & Financial Analysis, Electronics MEng
Tower Semiconductor's 2028 guidance makes its shares attractively valued around $180 despite competition from Silith, GlobalFoundries, STMicroelectronics and others. The stock previously felt too rich to add to. x.com x.comÂ
GlobalFoundries' patent campaign is a materially adverse complication for Tower Semiconductor but not an existential one, and the most probable end is a settlement or license on narrower terms than the complaint. It touches Tower's core RF, power and radar platforms during its $920M silicon-photonics and SiGe expansion. The two Texas suits and ITC complaint over 11 process patents are unproven. Legal leverage favors GlobalFoundries, but a clean GlobalFoundries sweep looks only 15-25% likely. … Show more
GlobalFoundries' new silicon germanium capacity deal with Marvell doesn't fix its position, because its SiGe is mediocre next to Tower's, though the gap is smaller than in silicon photonics. Semtech, and likely Macom, use Tower. x.com x.comÂ
Tower Semiconductor's stronger-than-expected capacity expansion lets it fill more optical-chip orders itself, reducing customers' incentive to move to foundries they regard as technologically weaker. Its hybrid bonding packs dense connections between photonic chips and their driver electronics, an advantage viewed as effectively unmatched among Western suppliers. Tower remains one of the highest-conviction holdings despite the portfolio trim. x.comÂ
GlobalFoundries is the most underappreciated foundry in the AI supply chain. x.comÂ
GlobalFoundries looks like a value trap next to TSMC's growth, as a comparison chart illustrates. x.comÂ
GlobalFoundries is heavily underrated: it will be the leading quantum foundry, and no one is pricing it as a robotics foundry. It should win a large slice of the robotics and IoT market, with motor controls, sensor fusion and communication microcontrollers running on its 22nm FDX process. It is the preferred pick among quantum plays. x.com x.comÂ
GlobalFoundries' $375M government contract to develop quantum products shows the advantage of not being a pure play. Its established business already lets it fund expansion without dilution while its higher-margin photonics business is set to double, so the stock can keep grinding higher as it proves itself the co-packaged optics foundry leader. x.comÂ
GlobalFoundries looks expensive against its earnings. It trades at 36 times trailing and 17 times next year's earnings, while chipmakers usually get 18 times. Applying 18 times to mid-cycle EPS of $1.41, give or take 12%, gives a fair value of $22.29-28.36, so the stock sits 58% above the top of that range; trailing and forward readings differ widely. This is a valuation read only, with no fundamental work behind it. x.comÂ
GlobalFoundries' new silicon photonics collaboration with SiVers is a small but real sign that its photonics roadmap is pulling in laser partners as AI bandwidth needs grow. SiVers' laser arrays will go into reference designs on GlobalFoundries' platform and its SCALE co-packaged optics engine, covering co-packaged and linear pluggable optics and other data-center interconnects. No financial terms were disclosed; the news matters more for SiVers; for GlobalFoundries it is neutral to bullish. … Show more