Photon Capital
Photonics & Semiconductor Research
GlobalFoundries' Xanadu partnership strengthens its position as a shared quantum-manufacturing platform across architectures. Its Malta fab will develop ultra-low-loss SiN photonics and superconducting nanowire detectors, alongside up to $375M in US quantum R&D funding. It ranked first of 23 companies in the earlier quantum map; production volumes and revenue remain undisclosed, with process transfer and yield validation still ahead. x.comÂ
GlobalFoundries emerges as one of the best-positioned companies in quantum and has a positive medium-term outlook. It projects sustained growth across AI, photonics and automotive through 2028, and that diversification reduces dependence on any single market and cyclical risk, suggesting management confidence in sustained demand. x.comÂ
GlobalFoundries' $375M government contract to develop quantum products shows the advantage of not being a pure play. Its established business already lets it fund expansion without dilution while its higher-margin photonics business is set to double, so the stock can keep grinding higher as it proves itself the co-packaged optics foundry leader. x.comÂ
GlobalFoundries is heavily underrated: it will be the leading quantum foundry, and no one is pricing it as a robotics foundry. It should win a large slice of the robotics and IoT market, with motor controls, sensor fusion and communication microcontrollers running on its 22nm FDX process. It is the preferred pick among quantum plays. x.com x.comÂ
GlobalFoundries' new silicon germanium capacity deal with Marvell doesn't fix its position, because its SiGe is mediocre next to Tower's, though the gap is smaller than in silicon photonics. Semtech, and likely Macom, use Tower. x.com x.comÂ
GlobalFoundries can earn from new US fabs without paying to build them. A US-Japan government-owned vehicle would fund and own up to $21B of buildings and tools across two fabs; GF would supply technology and operate them for fees plus an EBITDA share for at least 20 years. The first fab is expected to add about 900,000 wafers a year, with first output in 2029; management projects about $3B of cumulative free cash flow over ten years from that fab alone. Definitive agreements remain unsigned. … Show more
GlobalFoundries is the most underappreciated foundry in the AI supply chain. x.comÂ
GlobalFoundries looks like a value trap next to TSMC's growth, as a comparison chart illustrates. x.comÂ
Reported government-backed investment in GlobalFoundries' manufacturing makes it the next core holding candidate. A quoted Insiderwave post says the US government will add $955 million to its stake, taking its total investment to $1.63 billion, and Japan will put $21 billion into New York semiconductor facilities that GlobalFoundries would run. x.comÂ
GlobalFoundries' photonics business is validated by winning AMD's photonic integrated circuit order, a non-consensus bet that is paying off. Per @jukan05, AMD's MI500 uses a micro-ring-modulator co-packaged optics design with the PIC made by GlobalFoundries and packaging by ASE, while Nvidia's PIC is made by TSMC. Tower Semiconductor and UMC also look bullish. x.comÂ
GlobalFoundries looks expensive against its earnings. It trades at 36 times trailing and 17 times next year's earnings, while chipmakers usually get 18 times. Applying 18 times to mid-cycle EPS of $1.41, give or take 12%, gives a fair value of $22.29-28.36, so the stock sits 58% above the top of that range; trailing and forward readings differ widely. This is a valuation read only, with no fundamental work behind it. x.comÂ
UMC's first high-volume silicon photonics shipment is the bottleneck-resolving traction expected from accessible foundries. TSMC's capacity discipline opens room for foundries advancing in specialty and optical technology, which is why UMC and GlobalFoundries are favored over TSMC. SILITH and UMC shipped the first mass-produced photonic IC wafers from UMC's Singapore 12-inch fab for a 1.6T platform, qualified by a leading cloud customer. UMC targets an open 12-inch platform in 2027. x.comÂ
