Prof
Macro & Equity Commentary, Risk & Market Psychology
Quantum computing is getting billions of dollars from the White House while the market is already building positions, and the technology, though still early, will accelerate drug discovery, cybersecurity, logistics, materials science and financial modeling. Early positioning should pay off over the next five years across pure plays such as IonQ, Rigetti, D-Wave and Quantum Computing Inc., big tech builders IBM, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon and Nvidia, and quantum ETFs. x.comÂ
Quantum computing stocks D-Wave Quantum, Rigetti and Infleqtion now trade on fiscal support rather than technology: in May 2026 the US government put about $2 billion into the sector and took equity stakes as a condition, sending the three up roughly 30-33% in a day. Positions should be sized like lottery tickets. x.comÂ
IonQ, Rigetti and D-Wave are not worth owning except at basement-level valuations because quantum computing still does not solve commercially useful problems at scale. Government R&D money has flowed for over 30 years and is spread across the field; it is not an investment thesis, and AI-scale capital is nowhere close. Physics and engineering barriers remain and timelines keep shifting, possibly 5-15 years out, so the sector likely bleeds out more. Classical AI is the real revolution. x.com … Show more
Quantum component and foundry suppliers such as GlobalFoundries have been the better way to own the quantum cycle than pure plays. Over the past year the four quantum pure plays averaged -10.6% while seven component and metrology names, including GlobalFoundries, averaged +156%, and the Defiance Quantum ETF rose 54.9%. Most of the component gains, though, came from AI demand. US Commerce Department equity funding lowers financing risk for the industry, not technology risk. x.comÂ
Quantum computing has become US industrial policy rather than an experimental sector, now that the Trump administration is investing $2 billion for equity stakes in quantum companies. Per The Kobeissi Letter, citing the WSJ, IBM gets $1 billion for a quantum chip foundry in Albany, GlobalFoundries $375 million for quantum manufacturing, and D-Wave and Rigetti $100 million each. D-Wave and Rigetti jumped roughly 25% or more on the announcement. x.comÂ
Rigetti shareholders face $100M of dilution from a Commerce Department deal that is expected to take an equity stake when the company is not lacking funding. The letter of intent provides up to $100M over three years under the CHIPS Act for superconducting quantum R&D. x.comÂ
Quantum computing is a race whose winners get pricing power over the hardest problems; Google's CEO says quantum is where AI was five years ago. IonQ leads with Q2 revenue of $80.1 million, up 287%. D-Wave alone is in commercial production; Rigetti grew revenue 173%. IBM targets fault tolerance in 2029, Alphabet's Willow began the cycle, Xanadu is photonic, Infleqtion has federal backing, Quantum Computing Inc. is speculative, Arqit sells post-quantum security; an ETF holds the field. x.com … Show more
Reported government-backed investment in GlobalFoundries' manufacturing makes it the next core holding candidate. A quoted Insiderwave post says the US government will add $955 million to its stake, taking its total investment to $1.63 billion, and Japan will put $21 billion into New York semiconductor facilities that GlobalFoundries would run. x.comÂ
IonQ, D-Wave and Rigetti look like traps after spiking on US government equity stakes. The $2B attached to nine quantum companies is roughly $100M each, a rounding error that doesn't change whether the businesses work. D-Wave's last quarter brought in $2.86M of revenue and Rigetti $4.4M, about 600x revenue. Much of the pop was a short squeeze, not revaluation, and the group later fell 7-9% on no news. Unlike Intel, which the government bought cheap, these are bought on a story. x.comÂ
Not owning a small slice of quantum computing is riskier than owning one. May brought about $2B of incentives to IBM, GlobalFoundries, Rigetti and others; June brought two executive orders targeting post-quantum cryptography and useful quantum computing by 2028; China ranked quantum first among future industries; and IBM and the University of Chicago ran a 70-logical-qubit computation classical computers can't simulate. Plays: SEALSQ, GlobalFoundries, Coherent, Keysight, FormFactor. x.comÂ