Quantum computing looks more like a scam the closer one looks, with IonQ and Rigetti sustained by delusion that keeps the funding flywheel spinning. IonQ's CEO claimed last year its quantum compute would overtake Nvidia's by 2027. Rigetti's CEO essentially said meaningful revenue is not coming soon, after selling his shares. Google's Sundar Pichai shows little interest in its quantum program, and OpenAI and Anthropic keep quantum researchers mainly as a just-in-case. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Rigetti Computing and Infleqtion are too speculative to own because neither has a moat yet. Bernstein flags both as high risk-reward quantum plays, but its own note says it is far too early to declare a winner and that different modalities have distinct strengths, so a new architecture could make their hardware obsolete. Quantum is also highly capital-intensive: Rigetti's roughly $590 million in cash is a runway being burned, not operating profit. For a quality investor, both are a pass for now. … Show more

Rigetti gains a federal tailwind: the Commerce Department will award it up to $100M under the CHIPS Act over three years, and new executive orders target practical quantum computers by 2028 and post-quantum cryptography upgrades by 2031. With $569M in cash, the grant eases dilution and liquidity risk. Management says its superconducting gates are nearly 1,000x faster than rival technologies, which with its chiplet architecture positions it to reach quantum advantage within three years. x.com 

IBM will win the quantum race with Trump's backing, as the US will not lose quantum to China, making it a 10+ year hold. It just unveiled the first sub-1nm chip technology, a 0.7nm NanoStack 3D transistor design, and its technical advances should only accelerate. x.com 

IonQ, Rigetti and D-Wave are not worth owning except at basement-level valuations because quantum computing still does not solve commercially useful problems at scale. Government R&D money has flowed for over 30 years and is spread across the field; it is not an investment thesis, and AI-scale capital is nowhere close. Physics and engineering barriers remain and timelines keep shifting, possibly 5-15 years out, so the sector likely bleeds out more. Classical AI is the real revolution. x.com  … Show more

Rigetti Computing is one of three massive sub-$20 plays like IonQ, with three catalysts. Its Lyra processor targets 336 qubits and 99.7% two-qubit gate fidelity, a realistic path to demonstrable quantum advantage, possibly by late 2026. It holds a C-DAC India deal and is pursuing a UK 1,000+ qubit deployment; a DoD or NATO contract would validate it as a national-security asset. Deeper integration with Nvidia, Google or Microsoft would turn grant revenue into recurring subscriptions. x.com 

Rigetti Computing's valuation is absurd: it still carries a market cap above $5bn on just $5m of revenue and a $28m operating loss. x.com 

Quantinuum's IPO will show the market how far IonQ, Rigetti and D-Wave lag on logical qubits, the metric that matters for fault-tolerant computing, and that gap will soon be priced. Quantinuum has 48 logical qubits on Helios versus zero or few at the listed names. The IPO crowns the fault-tolerance leader, not the sector winner: IonQ pursues vertical integration across networking, security and defense, Rigetti bets on superconducting scale, and all must turn capability into revenue. x.com 

IonQ, Rigetti and Infleqtion are the next stocks Trump is effectively calling, now that he says the US aims to have a quantum computer for scientific discovery by 2028. His earlier signals preceded big gains in Intel, Dell and Micron. x.com 

IBM should re-rate over the medium to long term on two fronts: quantum computing, where the U.S. government is taking a stake, and a broader software re-rating as software is no longer seen purely as an AI loser. IBM also has a strong customer base and channels, with deep customer stickiness. x.com