Herman Jin
Formerly in Asia FICC at Goldman Sachs, Macro & Semiconductor Investing
Bitcoin must go through a complete liquidity drought before it can recover. Crypto exchanges' push into US stocks has wrecked the ecosystem built since 2019, and AI has broken bitcoin's mining logic. So far only retail traders have been wiped out; market makers must be wiped out too. Once everyone recognizes the problem, bitcoin can turn around, but that still takes waiting. x.comÂ
Bitcoin is rated avoid amid the current AI sector crash, alongside Ethereum, CoreWeave, IREN and Tesla, while memory names and Alphabet are strong buys. x.comÂ
High interest rates curb leveraged Bitcoin speculation while new investment opportunities compete for limited capital. AI companies are taking on heavy debt, SpaceX recently went public and Anthropic is preparing an IPO; many beaten-down AI stocks may offer a better chance of doubling than Bitcoin. With Bitcoin below $80,000, $70,000 is more likely than $90,000 from here. x.comÂ
Bitcoin could gain new demand from a USD-income market worth trillions because Bitcoin-backed preferreds may offer fixed dividends above equity, real estate and bond yields even as share prices fluctuate. From IPO through October 9, STRC and SATA traded at or above $100 on just 16% and 24% of days; income stays fixed if dividends are paid. Issuers can use proceeds to buy BTC. Bitcoin and this income market could grow faster than traditional assets without those assets crashing. x.comÂ
Bitcoin has been in free fall since Philippe Laffont told CNBC he no longer finds it interesting, given attractive new secular-growth IPOs and stablecoins. Chip stocks offer real earnings, value and momentum instead, and hawkish talk from new Fed chair Kevin Warsh adds pressure. x.com x.comÂ
The Fed's continuing inflation focus and prospect of expensive money for longer are eroding Bitcoin's initial relief from the rate hold. At the 3.75%-4.00% hold, two officials voted to hike; Warsh left further tightening open but did not commit to a December hike. BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF drew $136M yesterday, its third straight inflow session, showing buyers are still present. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Bitcoin could draw big institutional money once it gets a real slot in bank model portfolios; a bullish research forecast alone is not enough. JPMorgan projects 10% annual returns over 10-15 years, ahead of US large-cap stocks at 7.5% and gold at 5.5%, but excludes Bitcoin from its main risk models because its links to other assets are unstable. Bitcoin could top $100,000, but keep exposure small: JPMorgan expects 55% annual volatility and models an 11.2% annual loss in its bad case. x.com x.com … Show more
Bitcoin may need sustained demand above all to outweigh selling pressure, since even favorable catalysts have coincided with declines. BTC fell despite rate cuts, a pro-crypto president, institutional adoption and rising liquidity; it now faces rate hikes, war in Iran, inflation, AI-bubble fears, quantum risks and AI-driven crypto hacks. x.comÂ
Bitcoin is a scam and nothing more than a greater-fool trade, because it is pure speculation with no intrinsic cash flow. It is overhyped as a wealth-builder and rarely lifts anyone out of their financial situation; in Charlie Munger's words, it is rat poison. Fading excitement and buying show people are figuring that out. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Historic debt levels and currency debasement make Bitcoin's role as a store of value more important than ever, countering Jason Calacanis's call to sell it. x.comÂ
Bitcoin's failure to decouple from AI leaves it at risk around the coming big hyperscaler earnings week. That linkage is worrying enough to prompt a 'timber' warning. x.comÂ