The Fed's continuing inflation focus and prospect of expensive money for longer are eroding Bitcoin's initial relief from the rate hold. At the 3.75%-4.00% hold, two officials voted to hike; Warsh left further tightening open but did not commit to a December hike. BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF drew $136M yesterday, its third straight inflow session, showing buyers are still present. x.com  x.com  x.com 

High interest rates curb leveraged Bitcoin speculation while new investment opportunities compete for limited capital. AI companies are taking on heavy debt, SpaceX recently went public and Anthropic is preparing an IPO; many beaten-down AI stocks may offer a better chance of doubling than Bitcoin. With Bitcoin below $80,000, $70,000 is more likely than $90,000 from here. x.com 

Bitcoin's near-term macro backdrop is not yet favorable because the Fed balance sheet is stuck at $6.75 trillion, so patience is warranted. The Fed will eventually have to step in for debt markets. ETF inflows leave time for October to turn positive, while Bitwise raised its 2036 target to $1.6 million and says institutions may allocate 1% to 5% as adoption and debasement-hedge demand rise. A U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve may start buying very soon once crypto rules are settled. x.com  x.com  … Show more

Bitcoin's outlook is not very optimistic in a high-interest-rate environment, because bitcoin generates no profits. x.com 

Bitcoin's core theses no longer seem real or relevant: it has not worked as digital gold preserving purchasing power and hedging inflation and geopolitical instability, institutional adoption has not strengthened its value, and its asymmetric upside against gold's roughly $15 trillion market cap has not materialized, even though 2026 should be a perfect year for it. That leaves only halving cycles, which makes it look like a silly asset class. x.com 

A hawkish Fed surprise could briefly pressure Bitcoin, but any dip remains a chance to accumulate. Kalshi odds of a rate hike ticked up before Bitcoin weakened, and odds of a dissenting vote spiked ahead of FOMC; dissents are usually hawkish. Expect more red just after the announcement only if that signal materializes. x.com 

Bitcoin's failure to decouple from AI leaves it at risk around the coming big hyperscaler earnings week. That linkage is worrying enough to prompt a 'timber' warning. x.com 

Bitcoin is rated avoid amid the current AI sector crash, alongside Ethereum, CoreWeave, IREN and Tesla, while memory names and Alphabet are strong buys. x.com 

Kevin Warsh's very dovish statement supports the Bitcoin pivot-low scenario and a move higher this quarter. In this favored scenario, Bitcoin makes another higher high in the $90k-$100k area, the stock market reaches new all-time highs, and altcoins follow suit. x.com 

The US dollar's Stage 2 advance and a weak overall market tilt the evidence bearish for Bitcoin. Most crypto stocks are in Stage 4, and too little else confirms a new Stage 2 move. Bitcoin is likely to fail its recent move and resume Stage 4. x.com  x.com