Bussin Science Investor
Investor Focused on Risk/Reward
Bitcoin's core theses no longer seem real or relevant: it has not worked as digital gold preserving purchasing power and hedging inflation and geopolitical instability, institutional adoption has not strengthened its value, and its asymmetric upside against gold's roughly $15 trillion market cap has not materialized, even though 2026 should be a perfect year for it. That leaves only halving cycles, which makes it look like a silly asset class. x.comÂ
Bitcoin is closer to speculation than investment because it produces nothing. Even if it becomes the dominant currency, stocks, real estate and business profits would simply be priced in it, so owning productive assets captures value whatever the world's currency. Buying bitcoin adds a separate bet that its monetary premium keeps rising against productive assets, and if adoption fails the whole bet can be lost. x.com x.comÂ
Bitcoin is rated avoid amid the current AI sector crash, alongside Ethereum, CoreWeave, IREN and Tesla, while memory names and Alphabet are strong buys. x.comÂ
Bitcoin's near-term macro backdrop is not yet favorable because the Fed balance sheet is stuck at $6.75 trillion, so patience is warranted. The Fed will eventually have to step in for debt markets. ETF inflows leave time for October to turn positive, while Bitwise raised its 2036 target to $1.6 million and says institutions may allocate 1% to 5% as adoption and debasement-hedge demand rise. A U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve may start buying very soon once crypto rules are settled. x.com x.com … Show more
Bitcoin has been in free fall since Philippe Laffont told CNBC he no longer finds it interesting, given attractive new secular-growth IPOs and stablecoins. Chip stocks offer real earnings, value and momentum instead, and hawkish talk from new Fed chair Kevin Warsh adds pressure. x.com x.comÂ
Bitcoin may need sustained demand above all to outweigh selling pressure, since even favorable catalysts have coincided with declines. BTC fell despite rate cuts, a pro-crypto president, institutional adoption and rising liquidity; it now faces rate hikes, war in Iran, inflation, AI-bubble fears, quantum risks and AI-driven crypto hacks. x.comÂ
Historic debt levels and currency debasement make Bitcoin's role as a store of value more important than ever, countering Jason Calacanis's call to sell it. x.comÂ
Bitcoin and crypto have largely failed to evolve beyond vehicles for speculation after about 15 years, as @kingtutcap argues. Its digital gold role has been inconsistent, since it trades like a risk asset in panics rather than a safe haven, and most coins offer little beyond hopes of selling to someone else at a higher price. Bitcoin also serves largely as a backend for criminals to move money. x.com x.comÂ
Bitcoin is a scam and nothing more than a greater-fool trade, because it is pure speculation with no intrinsic cash flow. It is overhyped as a wealth-builder and rarely lifts anyone out of their financial situation; in Charlie Munger's words, it is rat poison. Fading excitement and buying show people are figuring that out. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Bitcoin's upside needs lower oil and inflation and stronger risk appetite; that macro shift has not arrived. IBIT holding 46.3 is a good sign, and its topping short-term cycle is not a deal killer. x.comÂ
Bitcoin remains unappealing because there are no cash flows behind it. It still has two real merits: it can potentially hedge against inflation, and it cannot be printed, since creating it takes real, expensive energy, which grounds it in physical reality. x.comÂ
