Babyfolio
Software Engineer, AI Infrastructure Investor
Bitcoin is closer to speculation than investment because it produces nothing. Even if it becomes the dominant currency, stocks, real estate and business profits would simply be priced in it, so owning productive assets captures value whatever the world's currency. Buying bitcoin adds a separate bet that its monetary premium keeps rising against productive assets, and if adoption fails the whole bet can be lost. x.com x.comÂ
Bitcoin is a scam and nothing more than a greater-fool trade, because it is pure speculation with no intrinsic cash flow. It is overhyped as a wealth-builder and rarely lifts anyone out of their financial situation; in Charlie Munger's words, it is rat poison. Fading excitement and buying show people are figuring that out. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Bitcoin and crypto have largely failed to evolve beyond vehicles for speculation after about 15 years, as @kingtutcap argues. Its digital gold role has been inconsistent, since it trades like a risk asset in panics rather than a safe haven, and most coins offer little beyond hopes of selling to someone else at a higher price. Bitcoin also serves largely as a backend for criminals to move money. x.com x.comÂ
Bitcoin's utility creates demand and convexity, while its scarce supply protects that upside because supply cannot respond to price. Most scarce things fail the utility test; bitcoin passes both. Adoption is unfolding one balance sheet at a time: Strategy holds 848,517 BTC, more than the next 200 public companies combined; Strive is #4 and climbing at 36,818, and SpaceX is #7 at 18,712. x.com x.comÂ
Bitcoin's core theses no longer seem real or relevant: it has not worked as digital gold preserving purchasing power and hedging inflation and geopolitical instability, institutional adoption has not strengthened its value, and its asymmetric upside against gold's roughly $15 trillion market cap has not materialized, even though 2026 should be a perfect year for it. That leaves only halving cycles, which makes it look like a silly asset class. x.comÂ
Bitcoin remains unappealing because there are no cash flows behind it. It still has two real merits: it can potentially hedge against inflation, and it cannot be printed, since creating it takes real, expensive energy, which grounds it in physical reality. x.comÂ
Bitcoin could gain new demand from a USD-income market worth trillions because Bitcoin-backed preferreds may offer fixed dividends above equity, real estate and bond yields even as share prices fluctuate. From IPO through October 9, STRC and SATA traded at or above $100 on just 16% and 24% of days; income stays fixed if dividends are paid. Issuers can use proceeds to buy BTC. Bitcoin and this income market could grow faster than traditional assets without those assets crashing. x.comÂ
Bitcoin is rated avoid amid the current AI sector crash, alongside Ethereum, CoreWeave, IREN and Tesla, while memory names and Alphabet are strong buys. x.comÂ
Bitcoin's fixed supply is a flaw, not an advantage, because it replaces arbitrary fiat over-issuance with an equally arbitrary fixed quantity. Under a gold standard, the market decides supply: gold is minted into money when circulating money is short, melted into jewelry or shipped abroad when prices are too high, and mining rises as deflation cuts costs. Jewelry demand is the source of gold's value. Bitcoin repeats the mistake of Robert Peel's 1844 attempt to fix the circulating medium. x.com … Show more
Bitcoin is the better place for money than equities whose prices are fake. A $200k market order can crash the share price of a $5 billion company. x.comÂ
Bitcoin is not an investment because it is a non-productive asset. x.comÂ
