Bitcoin remains unappealing because there are no cash flows behind it. It still has two real merits: it can potentially hedge against inflation, and it cannot be printed, since creating it takes real, expensive energy, which grounds it in physical reality. x.com 

Bitcoin is closer to speculation than investment because it produces nothing. Even if it becomes the dominant currency, stocks, real estate and business profits would simply be priced in it, so owning productive assets captures value whatever the world's currency. Buying bitcoin adds a separate bet that its monetary premium keeps rising against productive assets, and if adoption fails the whole bet can be lost. x.com  x.com 

Bitcoin benefits as the risk of creating gold through alchemy has entered public consciousness. That perceived threat to gold's scarcity supports a long Bitcoin position as a persistent theme. x.com 

Bitcoin may need sustained demand above all to outweigh selling pressure, since even favorable catalysts have coincided with declines. BTC fell despite rate cuts, a pro-crypto president, institutional adoption and rising liquidity; it now faces rate hikes, war in Iran, inflation, AI-bubble fears, quantum risks and AI-driven crypto hacks. x.com 

The Fed's continuing inflation focus and prospect of expensive money for longer are eroding Bitcoin's initial relief from the rate hold. At the 3.75%-4.00% hold, two officials voted to hike; Warsh left further tightening open but did not commit to a December hike. BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF drew $136M yesterday, its third straight inflow session, showing buyers are still present. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Bitcoin's fixed 21 million supply makes it preferable to oil, gold and silver, whose higher prices encourage more production. Sell those three commodities and buy Bitcoin. A gold-normalized historical scarcity-resistance ranking scores silver 83.6 and WTI oil 72.1 against gold's 100; it tracks historical loss of purchasing power to Bitcoin, not physical scarcity. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Gold depends on finding a greater fool to buy it, which is increasingly problematic because bitcoin is a perfectly scarce version of gold that is portable over the internet. x.com 

Bitcoin is nearly done as momentum has vanished and the world has largely moved on from it. If it saw true inflows, it wouldn't be this weak while markets hit all-time highs in a risk-on environment. It needs an 80% rise just to regain its all-time high, and talk of $1 million bitcoin or matching gold's market cap is over. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Bitcoin has seen only a fraction of the flows rotating out of gold into it. Gold has yet to go through all its price-pain capitulation, and then comes a period of time pain. x.com 

Gold, silver and bitcoin are in a cyclical downturn driven by a rallying dollar, even though the secular debasement trade remains on. The dollar index hit a 13-month high, tightening everything priced in dollars and unwinding crowded positions: gold is under $4,000, off about 25%, silver is down about 40% and bitcoin is below $60,000. Over decades fiat erodes, driven by fiscal dominance rather than the Fed's balance sheet, so size for the cycle and position for the secular trend. x.com  x.com  … Show more