History and correlations point to elevated near-term risk for bitcoin. Measured against Wrightson ICAP's estimate of net T-bill issuance, the chart suggests bitcoin bottoms out around $70K by the end of October. @MichaelMOTTCM notes the Fed has stopped its reserve management purchases, meaning no more QE; if that is accurate, it is a serious blow to bitcoin. x.com  x.com 

Bitcoin offers poor risk/reward after a head fake on the majors, with liquidity vanishing and altcoins lacking momentum. That setup likely means a painful liquidation of all the sloppy risk piled on. x.com  x.com 

Bitcoin could draw big institutional money once it gets a real slot in bank model portfolios; a bullish research forecast alone is not enough. JPMorgan projects 10% annual returns over 10-15 years, ahead of US large-cap stocks at 7.5% and gold at 5.5%, but excludes Bitcoin from its main risk models because its links to other assets are unstable. Bitcoin could top $100,000, but keep exposure small: JPMorgan expects 55% annual volatility and models an 11.2% annual loss in its bad case. x.com  x.com  … Show more

Bitcoin needs buyers to return as ETF demand reverses sharply: Eliteonchain reports $321.6M of inflows over October's first four trading sessions followed by $729M of outflows over the next two, including withdrawals from IBIT and FBTC. x.com 

Altcoins have a stronger cycle setup because the Fed’s balance sheet has been growing again after shrinking from 2023 to 2025, when alts lagged Bitcoin. Improving risk ratios point the same way. The outlook is not certain: the author assigns 50% odds to chop, 40% to outperformance and 10% to a decline. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Risk assets look set to rotate ahead of gold after four years in which US stocks, small caps, Ether and altcoins were all in a bear market against it. Gold ran past $5,000 and is now pausing on profit-taking and higher rates, often when everything else catches a bid. The S&P 500 priced in gold is bottoming at the 0.618 Fib, up about 8% this month in gold terms while down 7% in dollars; small caps are up 9% against gold, and bitcoin against gold likely bottomed at 13. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more

Bitcoin has been in free fall since Philippe Laffont told CNBC he no longer finds it interesting, given attractive new secular-growth IPOs and stablecoins. Chip stocks offer real earnings, value and momentum instead, and hawkish talk from new Fed chair Kevin Warsh adds pressure. x.com  x.com 

Bitcoin and ether liquidity is fleeing to AI and the SpaceX IPO, leaving crypto, the darling of 2020-2021, with no bid. The timeline now chases AI the way it chased crypto in 2021, which looks like Magnetar 2.0. Crypto has led markets for a long time and may be leading again, so it may be time to take profits. x.com  x.com 

Bitcoin's near-term macro backdrop is not yet favorable because the Fed balance sheet is stuck at $6.75 trillion, so patience is warranted. The Fed will eventually have to step in for debt markets. ETF inflows leave time for October to turn positive, while Bitwise raised its 2036 target to $1.6 million and says institutions may allocate 1% to 5% as adoption and debasement-hedge demand rise. A U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve may start buying very soon once crypto rules are settled. x.com  x.com  … Show more

Gold, silver and bitcoin are in a cyclical downturn driven by a rallying dollar, even though the secular debasement trade remains on. The dollar index hit a 13-month high, tightening everything priced in dollars and unwinding crowded positions: gold is under $4,000, off about 25%, silver is down about 40% and bitcoin is below $60,000. Over decades fiat erodes, driven by fiscal dominance rather than the Fed's balance sheet, so size for the cycle and position for the secular trend. x.com  x.com  … Show more