degentrading
Former TradFi Options Market Maker, Delegate at Lido DAO
Bitcoin looks likely to retest the $81k support zone next week as crypto majors consolidate. Altcoin liquidity is limited, with tickers taking turns as money rotates, on-chain capital pools look tired as unrealized gains evaporate, and prior momentum runners such as LIT and ZEC are waning. Caution is warranted unless compelling plays appear. x.com x.com
Weak liquidity and insufficient buying pressure leave altcoins vulnerable to another liquidation wave. Many sit near support while selling pressure persists, so even a small selloff could trigger liquidations; a bounce is still possible, but the bottom is not convincing yet. A further major drop would offer better entries in bitcoin, ether, Pendle and Bittensor, whose long-term potential remains intact. x.com
Bitcoin and ether liquidity is fleeing to AI and the SpaceX IPO, leaving crypto, the darling of 2020-2021, with no bid. The timeline now chases AI the way it chased crypto in 2021, which looks like Magnetar 2.0. Crypto has led markets for a long time and may be leading again, so it may be time to take profits. x.com x.com
Crypto still has room to rise because institutional adoption is accelerating and good altcoins remain underowned globally. Traditional finance is bringing assets onchain, and progress since five years ago makes it impossible to be bearish. Bitcoin looks stronger than overstretched altcoins and has shaken off severe bad news; more chop or shakeouts could come before the market moves higher. x.com
Bitcoin is rated avoid amid the current AI sector crash, alongside Ethereum, CoreWeave, IREN and Tesla, while memory names and Alphabet are strong buys. x.com
Altcoins have a stronger cycle setup because the Fed’s balance sheet has been growing again after shrinking from 2023 to 2025, when alts lagged Bitcoin. Improving risk ratios point the same way. The outlook is not certain: the author assigns 50% odds to chop, 40% to outperformance and 10% to a decline. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com
Bitcoin's liquidation flush, worse than October 10, may be the clearing event the market needed to eventually take out previous all-time highs. Expected returns on the crypto majors are now on par with or better than most altcoins, so the countertrend rally, when it comes, should be violent. Strategy shares falling to $100 would be a buy. x.com x.com
Bitcoin may be near a local top as altcoin spot volume hits about 4x Bitcoin's, the highest ratio in a year. Per Glassnode, similar spikes have coincided with local BTC tops rather than the start of an altcoin season, so this is the time to rotate smart, not late. x.com
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are volatile and risky because their prices rise and fall with no underlying substance, unlike stocks backed by real businesses. x.com
Crypto's Wild West reputation creates market inefficiencies and, therefore, great opportunity. It looks to have decoupled from stocks over the past year, though the risky narrative persists. x.com
Crypto looks ugly because a basket of 60% bitcoin, 30% ether and 10% Solana tracks global liquidity with about a three-month lag. Fed liquidity injections have plainly slowed, even with the mini-QE reserve management purchases that parched repo markets forced on it, and that is not bull-market policy. x.com