Ted Zhang
Portfolio Manager of Turbotection at Revere Asset Management
Crypto has bottomed and entered a new bull market that could last one to two years like previous cycles, and it is still early. That view, held since late June or early July, still stands for Hyperliquid, Zcash, bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana. Per @EleanorTerrett, the CFTC has now submitted its crypto rulemaking to the White House for review, after the Senate failed to advance market-structure legislation. x.comÂ
Crypto's maturation, alongside monetary debasement, should keep the revenue-generating and store-of-value portfolio barbell outperforming. These are its two primary drivers. x.comÂ
Crypto still has room to rise because institutional adoption is accelerating and good altcoins remain underowned globally. Traditional finance is bringing assets onchain, and progress since five years ago makes it impossible to be bearish. Bitcoin looks stronger than overstretched altcoins and has shaken off severe bad news; more chop or shakeouts could come before the market moves higher. x.comÂ
Bitcoin's failure to decouple from AI leaves it at risk around the coming big hyperscaler earnings week. That linkage is worrying enough to prompt a 'timber' warning. x.comÂ
Few new hyped token launches are crypto's most bullish feature, concentrating bids in good, fixed-supply tokens without VC scams that buy back supply. Unlike mega equity IPOs and a lack of hyperscaler buybacks, good crypto is structurally healthier than equities, with fewer headwinds and better risk/reward as tokenization stays a dominant theme for the next few years. A correlation shock remains possible, but crypto could recover fastest afterward; this is not the time to turn bearish. x.comÂ
Crypto assets should reprice upward as purchasing power falls and nearly everything else costs more. Tokenization is still in its earliest stage and should reward patient investment in projects positioned to capture it; an altcoin portfolio centered on Ethereum and value-accrual tokens, with some Robinhood and Arc exposure, should outperform nearly everything over six to twelve months. Robinhood and Arc chains may drive much of the broader altcoin expansion. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Being long crypto offers no edge because a decade of outsized returns drew in capital and competition until bitcoin's original edge dissolved. Even the best innovations in the space have no one-of-one asset, and until the industry consolidates, likely painfully, that will not change. After 13 years to a 2024 secular top, two years of cooling is probably not enough reset; four might be. This fall's theoretical four-year cycle bottom is worth watching; if the cycle fails, it gets nasty. x.com … Show more
Ethereum could be one of the best trades this year as it breaks a year-long downtrend amid complete disinterest. It reclaimed its 21- and 50-day moving averages and held them for a month while the stock market went through a historic drawdown. Many will likely call the move fake, but it doesn't look that way. x.comÂ
Investors will inevitably seek the strongest trends, value and opportunities as the speculative AI trade bursts, making that shift incredibly bullish for Bitcoin. x.comÂ
Growing onchain stock activity makes cryptocurrencies less compelling even as blockchains succeed. Active RWA TVL in DeFi rose from $15M to $332M in ten months, over 20x. Stocks are set to eat crypto on its own turf, not the other way around. x.comÂ
Bitcoin looks interesting because crypto has not joined the stock bull run, leaving sentiment quiet while the setup starts to make sense. The aim is to avoid chasing what has already run the hardest. x.comÂ