Bitcoin offers poor risk/reward after a head fake on the majors, with liquidity vanishing and altcoins lacking momentum. That setup likely means a painful liquidation of all the sloppy risk piled on. x.com  x.com 

Altcoins have a stronger cycle setup because the Fed’s balance sheet has been growing again after shrinking from 2023 to 2025, when alts lagged Bitcoin. Improving risk ratios point the same way. The outlook is not certain: the author assigns 50% odds to chop, 40% to outperformance and 10% to a decline. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Crypto's maturation, alongside monetary debasement, should keep the revenue-generating and store-of-value portfolio barbell outperforming. These are its two primary drivers. x.com 

Bitcoin and ether liquidity is fleeing to AI and the SpaceX IPO, leaving crypto, the darling of 2020-2021, with no bid. The timeline now chases AI the way it chased crypto in 2021, which looks like Magnetar 2.0. Crypto has led markets for a long time and may be leading again, so it may be time to take profits. x.com  x.com 

Bitcoin is unlikely to stage a 2020-style V-shaped recovery because crypto keeps competing with AI for capital, and the flows have clearly gone to equities, especially AI names. The 2020 rebound followed a pandemic, a doubling of the money supply, rate cuts and stimulus checks; today global liquidity is at a record, but rates could rise. Bitcoin may still be a great buy here. @Bobby_1111888 argues the macro backdrop is the most 2020-like since then and the AI headwind may be turning. x.com  x.com 

Crypto's Wild West reputation creates market inefficiencies and, therefore, great opportunity. It looks to have decoupled from stocks over the past year, though the risky narrative persists. x.com 

Crypto stays in a bear market for roughly the next 3-8 months, even after the SEC and CFTC jointly clarified that most crypto assets are not securities. Their interpretation explicitly names Bitcoin, Ether, Solana, XRP, Cardano, Dogecoin, Chainlink and others as non-securities, a win for clarity that should lift investor confidence. That news may spark a short-term relief rally over the coming weeks but will not cancel the bear market. The outlook is bullish over a 5-20 year horizon. x.com  x.com  … Show more

Bitcoin should keep falling toward a bottom around October to December 2026 because it follows its own cycle, bottoming 25-30 months after a halving. The last halving was in April 2024. That timing holds unless something material changes, such as quantum computing breaking the blockchain. Per Watcher Guru, Bitcoin has just fallen below $70,000. x.com 

Crypto still has room to rise because institutional adoption is accelerating and good altcoins remain underowned globally. Traditional finance is bringing assets onchain, and progress since five years ago makes it impossible to be bearish. Bitcoin looks stronger than overstretched altcoins and has shaken off severe bad news; more chop or shakeouts could come before the market moves higher. x.com 

Bitcoin is rated avoid amid the current AI sector crash, alongside Ethereum, CoreWeave, IREN and Tesla, while memory names and Alphabet are strong buys. x.com