Andy
Co-Founder of The Rollup & The Rollup Ventures
Bitcoin, Ether and Zcash stand to gain because AI overspending now has a forced government backstop, which means money printing. No politician will admit to spending too much on AI, and the Pentagon frames it as national security defense. Arthur Hayes, as quoted by @therollupco, argues printing to cover AI malinvestment mirrors the balance-sheet expansion after the 2008 housing bust, only larger, and is exactly what Bitcoin was created for. x.comÂ
Crypto's Wild West reputation creates market inefficiencies and, therefore, great opportunity. It looks to have decoupled from stocks over the past year, though the risky narrative persists. x.comÂ
Crypto assets should reprice upward as purchasing power falls and nearly everything else costs more. Tokenization is still in its earliest stage and should reward patient investment in projects positioned to capture it; an altcoin portfolio centered on Ethereum and value-accrual tokens, with some Robinhood and Arc exposure, should outperform nearly everything over six to twelve months. Robinhood and Arc chains may drive much of the broader altcoin expansion. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Growing onchain stock activity makes cryptocurrencies less compelling even as blockchains succeed. Active RWA TVL in DeFi rose from $15M to $332M in ten months, over 20x. Stocks are set to eat crypto on its own turf, not the other way around. x.comÂ
Crypto still has room to rise because institutional adoption is accelerating and good altcoins remain underowned globally. Traditional finance is bringing assets onchain, and progress since five years ago makes it impossible to be bearish. Bitcoin looks stronger than overstretched altcoins and has shaken off severe bad news; more chop or shakeouts could come before the market moves higher. x.comÂ
Historic debt levels and currency debasement make Bitcoin's role as a store of value more important than ever, countering Jason Calacanis's call to sell it. x.comÂ
Bitcoin's failure to decouple from AI leaves it at risk around the coming big hyperscaler earnings week. That linkage is worrying enough to prompt a 'timber' warning. x.comÂ
Hyperliquid is attractive because live protocols with oracle and liquidation risk can charge for ongoing risk management, giving them a potential moat. Easily copied protocols may see margins competed away. Crypto revenue continues to rise while total market cap is down nearly 40%, making good revenue-backed coins a generational long-term opportunity. Not every protocol has a moat. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Zcash's store-of-value narrative is more valued than revenue-linked privacy applications for now. Revenue-generating tokens could outperform once trust is established, but privacy store-of-value tokens remain the preferred narrative today. x.com x.comÂ
Being long crypto offers no edge because a decade of outsized returns drew in capital and competition until bitcoin's original edge dissolved. Even the best innovations in the space have no one-of-one asset, and until the industry consolidates, likely painfully, that will not change. After 13 years to a 2024 secular top, two years of cooling is probably not enough reset; four might be. This fall's theoretical four-year cycle bottom is worth watching; if the cycle fails, it gets nasty. x.com … Show more
Few new hyped token launches are crypto's most bullish feature, concentrating bids in good, fixed-supply tokens without VC scams that buy back supply. Unlike mega equity IPOs and a lack of hyperscaler buybacks, good crypto is structurally healthier than equities, with fewer headwinds and better risk/reward as tokenization stays a dominant theme for the next few years. A correlation shock remains possible, but crypto could recover fastest afterward; this is not the time to turn bearish. x.comÂ