Tulip King
Head of Strategy at CounterpartyTV, Crypto Investor
Hyperliquid is attractive because live protocols with oracle and liquidation risk can charge for ongoing risk management, giving them a potential moat. Easily copied protocols may see margins competed away. Crypto revenue continues to rise while total market cap is down nearly 40%, making good revenue-backed coins a generational long-term opportunity. Not every protocol has a moat. x.com x.com x.com
Corporate dilution could favor deflationary, revenue-producing crypto tokens, while share tokenization should lift trading on Hyperliquid and Derive. Paul Tudor Jones sees companies issuing stock and debt to sustain capex. Hyperliquid, Pump.fun, Venice and Derive make money and buy back tokens; Venice, Grass and Pearl ride the AI trend. Even weak equities could spur share tokenization as firms seek to lock up supply. Tokenization projects would need clearer token value accrual to be buys. x.com x.com
Hyperliquid's credibility and distribution can compound because every credible institution or investor that steps in makes it easier for the next. Per trade[XYZ], it and ICE plan a U.S. market built on Hyperliquid, subject to CFTC approval. Traditional finance generated exceptional social proof in a single day for a platform with a working product, product-market fit and real revenue. This could be a defining moment, though it might also be euphoria. x.com x.com
Hyperliquid is taking share as infrastructure underpinning financial markets, supporting a long view on HYPE. Stan Druckenmiller said trade(xyz) is partnering with ICE to bring 24/7 perpetual futures on Hyperliquid to the US; that is welcome progress. x.com
Hyperliquid's valuation looks stretched against what serious markets pay for exchanges, and perpetual futures have been, and always will be, a niche product with no real moat. x.com
All HYPE bears have been liquidated while sidelined bulls remain, leaving Hyperliquid's token headed higher. Everyone called it the most crowded trade. An attached chart pairs the move with trade[XYZ]'s announcement that it and ICE are bringing 24/7 perpetual futures on Hyperliquid to the US. x.com
Hyperliquid's HYPE will likely always trade at the highest revenue premium because of trust in its team and its many income streams, some of them, such as stablecoin yield, independent of the market. The product is incredibly sticky, the team is probably the most aligned with its own success of any project in crypto history, and it performed well in the bear market, revenue included. That is part of what buyers pay for when it is compared with other successful projects. x.com
ICE's planned US perps access could grow Hyperliquid's users, volume and revenue, but that growth may already be priced into HYPE. CFTC approval, a launch and actual US adoption are still needed; even then, extra fees and buybacks must beat expectations. ICE backing, Druckenmiller investing and Elon tweeting have made the story widespread. The easy HYPE trade looks over for average retail investors, though this call could be early. x.com x.com
Hyperliquid's growing perp share feeds fees into HYPE buybacks even as the market shrinks. Its share among the top 12 perp DEXs rose from 25% in January to 43% in September, below August's 47% peak. Its trailing buyback yield is 3.52% versus 1.51% for the S&P 500, but depends on trading volume and shrinks on fully diluted supply as tokens unlock. Watcher Guru reported plans by the NYSE owner to bring HYPE perps to regulated US markets; $100 remains the chart target. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com … Show more
Crypto's maturation, alongside monetary debasement, should keep the revenue-generating and store-of-value portfolio barbell outperforming. These are its two primary drivers. x.com
HYPE is selling off because its big buyer has run out of money. The ETF has used up its entire at-the-market offering and is no longer buying, which explains the price action. x.com x.com
Zcash and Hyperliquid could face less selling pressure because they have newer, stronger narratives than NEAR and fewer holders waiting to sell at breakeven. Their appeal this cycle rests on narrative and hype; they look like this cycle's Ether and Solana. x.com x.com x.com
