Being long crypto offers no edge because a decade of outsized returns drew in capital and competition until bitcoin's original edge dissolved. Even the best innovations in the space have no one-of-one asset, and until the industry consolidates, likely painfully, that will not change. After 13 years to a 2024 secular top, two years of cooling is probably not enough reset; four might be. This fall's theoretical four-year cycle bottom is worth watching; if the cycle fails, it gets nasty. x.com  … Show more

Quality coins including Ethereum should outperform bitcoin through year-end, since the bottom very well could be in for ETH while bitcoin usually takes longer to capitulate. The current rally is probably a bullish period within an ongoing crypto bear market: perhaps a good run over the coming months and a dump into Q4, but no deeper bottom for quality coins, as the FUD has gotten stupid. Bitcoin's bottom could be in too, but other coins should still outperform. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Crypto still has room to rise because institutional adoption is accelerating and good altcoins remain underowned globally. Traditional finance is bringing assets onchain, and progress since five years ago makes it impossible to be bearish. Bitcoin looks stronger than overstretched altcoins and has shaken off severe bad news; more chop or shakeouts could come before the market moves higher. x.com 

XRP and bitcoin face a crowded sideline as the CLARITY Act crypto bill stalls, with passage now more likely pushed to 2027. Senate Majority Leader Thune skipped the bill's cloture vote, filing on college sports instead, and no vote is coming before recess. Senator Elizabeth Warren says corruption, consumer protection and national-security concerns must be resolved first, calling the bill an industry giveaway. Adoption, though, does not stop because of politics. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Bitcoin is nearly done as momentum has vanished and the world has largely moved on from it. If it saw true inflows, it wouldn't be this weak while markets hit all-time highs in a risk-on environment. It needs an 80% rise just to regain its all-time high, and talk of $1 million bitcoin or matching gold's market cap is over. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Bitcoin's near-term macro backdrop is not yet favorable because the Fed balance sheet is stuck at $6.75 trillion, so patience is warranted. The Fed will eventually have to step in for debt markets. ETF inflows leave time for October to turn positive, while Bitwise raised its 2036 target to $1.6 million and says institutions may allocate 1% to 5% as adoption and debasement-hedge demand rise. A U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve may start buying very soon once crypto rules are settled. x.com  x.com  … Show more

ETH and SOL will struggle to stage independent narrative-driven rallies because US stocks are siphoning capital, leaving even Bitcoin short of heat and new demand. For a risk-averse investor favoring certainty over high odds, BNB and HYPE are the only higher-certainty choices besides Bitcoin, and both have outperformed it in this bear market. ETH and SOL are not bad assets, and they could get their chance once Bitcoin rises. x.com  x.com 

Liquidity is leaving bitcoin for AI and robotics equities, making a short-bitcoin, long-BlackBerry pair a generational opportunity. Strategy's STRC preferred keeps falling below $100 with an unsustainable dividend mechanism that could form a doom loop, and MSTR at 1.2x mNAV is expected to fall below NAV, closer to a bottom. Bitcoin ETFs are seeing outflows in the billions and the Coinbase premium is strongly negative, while equities and tech rip. x.com  x.com 

Crypto's maturation, alongside monetary debasement, should keep the revenue-generating and store-of-value portfolio barbell outperforming. These are its two primary drivers. x.com 

Circle looks set to turn back into an uptrend from a massive weekly base, with insider selling pressure likely exhausted. Nearly two years after the IPO, insiders and VCs who wanted to sell are probably gone, and the crypto theme is hot. x.com