Strategy is early below 1.5x its bitcoin net asset value, and the crowded short-Strategy, long-bitcoin trade is about to blow up, setting off short covering. Upcoming catalysts include STRC trading back at par, an Iran resolution with no rate hikes, and a momentum rotation into crypto after its underperformance relative to overpriced and crowded AI and software stocks. x.com 

Strategy is attracting some of the world's largest fund managers because they want Bitcoin exposure. Their buying supports the bullish case for MSTR as a listed vehicle for institutional Bitcoin demand. x.com 

Bitcoin and Strategy offer an unparalleled and underappreciated setup now that the issue around Strategy's STRC preferred is largely resolved. x.com 

Strive's common ATM can lift long-run returns by funding bitcoin purchases at a share premium. Bitcoin is historically cheap; stacking in a bear market or before the bull market begins drives the biggest gains later. But too much weekly issuance can blunt upside, exhaust investors and cap mNAV expansion; share scarcity matters. The ATM is crucial, but caution is preferable. Cole Macro said preferreds should help keep dilution below Strategy's levels on the way up. x.com  x.com  x.com 

BlackBerry is probably a good long-term bet as an unexpected winner of its pivot from phones to isolated operating systems, whose target markets of robotics, autonomous vehicles and space travel are all growing. The chart also looks bullish, with a clear inverse head-and-shoulders bottom in 2024, several breakouts and gaps up, and the price now above many key support levels. Its market cap is around $5.5B. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Crypto's maturation, alongside monetary debasement, should keep the revenue-generating and store-of-value portfolio barbell outperforming. These are its two primary drivers. x.com 

Strategy is a disclosed Ponzi that is now unwinding, with much more downside ahead and an eventual path to zero. As bitcoin-treasury hype fades, raising money to keep the scheme going gets harder, while interest costs keep accumulating on instruments such as its STRC preferred. That liquidity drain is what will take Strategy down. x.com 

Strategy's STRC preferred was never as safe as a money market fund, and if both STRC and MSTR share dilution fail, the only way left to pay dividends is selling bitcoin. Believing STRC would stay at par forever while paying a junk-like 12% was financial illiteracy; per @betirement, it has now fallen below $90. Strategy says its bitcoin reserve gives it 32 years of dividend coverage. x.com  x.com 

Crypto's Wild West reputation creates market inefficiencies and, therefore, great opportunity. It looks to have decoupled from stocks over the past year, though the risky narrative persists. x.com 

Raising Strategy's STRC rate could lock common shareholders into costly dividends after sentiment improves. STRC is six times SATA's size; each 0.5-point hike costs $43m a year on existing shares, without evidence it can sustain par. Buybacks have pushed STRC toward par; as Bitcoin rises and daily payouts start, it will return to par at 12%. Reversing a hike without serious backlash may be difficult for 5-10 years. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com