Bitcoin's major bearish risk is its community's disturbing lack of interest in preparing for quantum computers that could break its encryption. At least four companies target meaningfully powerful quantum computers by the early 2030s, quantum funding has grown by tens of billions in two years, qubit timelines keep improving, and the qubit count needed to break encryption keeps falling. There is still time for a fork adding post-quantum cryptography, with little to lose by acting now. x.com 

Bitcoin's bounce looks overbought and crowded, so lower prices in Q4 are slightly favored. The rally to the 200-day average beat expectations, hit 20-week cycle targets, leaving daily RSI at 85, with resistance at 80.6K and 82.8K. Fear & Greed is at a multi-year high, and heavy long leverage is likely to be flushed even if this is a major low. The four-year cycle points to a bottom from H2 2026 to early 2027, but whether it is in is unclear; failing a 68-69K 200-day test would mean a bear rally. … Show more

Bitcoin's halving and the next major US election occurring in the same year could recreate 2024's rally. The bullish Bitcoin view is for 2027-28, not 2026; a single monthly close does not settle its 1.5- to 2-year outlook. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Bitcoin's inability to reverse hacks makes decentralization a weakness as AI threats outpace security. Tether halted $1.8B from the Binance hack, showing the value of intervention; exploits take minutes, patches days or weeks. AI may be a greater threat to crypto than quantum, which Bitcoin has made effectively no progress on. New highs look increasingly distant without a Core-governed quantum-proof roadmap; quantum alone leaves today's elliptic curves under five years. x.com 

The Binance hack is part of the trouble Bitcoin's charts had been signaling. A four-year-cycle low looks to be incoming. x.com  x.com 

Bitcoin's macro-risk ratios doubled the time spent declining, pointing to one longer cycle rather than two four-year cycles. The July 2026 low came 44 months in, with perhaps another 52 months for the larger cycle to complete; elevated bitcoin dominance, low altcoin dominance and subdued ETH/BTC echo 2016 and 2020. Bitcoin is very likely to exceed $250,000, with a likely 2028 top followed by a multi-year 70%-80%+ bear market. Ether should outperform bitcoin going forward. x.com  x.com 

Bitcoin's pre-FOMC pump looks vulnerable because such moves usually retrace afterward and sweep below prior lows. That pattern now points to roughly $78K. Earlier, liquidations into FOMC and Bitcoin's strong hold near $80K despite another $79K test had suggested the correction might be over and that it could be a bad time to be bearish. x.com  x.com 

Bitcoin may need sustained demand above all to outweigh selling pressure, since even favorable catalysts have coincided with declines. BTC fell despite rate cuts, a pro-crypto president, institutional adoption and rising liquidity; it now faces rate hikes, war in Iran, inflation, AI-bubble fears, quantum risks and AI-driven crypto hacks. x.com 

Bitcoin's quantum risk is manageable because its network could probably be upgraded in about 90 days when quantum technology is eventually created. There is no real substantive threat to the network, and upgrading now would increase the attack layer. x.com 

Bitcoin still needs demand and short open interest before a bottom can be expected. Price reversed after taking liquidity at $84.6K; the nearest liquidity below is $79.6K, while $87K remains the strongest zone above and $90K is now the next target. Patience is warranted until that demand and short interest arrive; no bottom is expected yet. x.com