Bitcoin's pre-FOMC pump looks vulnerable because such moves usually retrace afterward and sweep below prior lows. That pattern now points to roughly $78K. Earlier, liquidations into FOMC and Bitcoin's strong hold near $80K despite another $79K test had suggested the correction might be over and that it could be a bad time to be bearish. x.com  x.com 

A poor CPI reading and $1B in liquidations leave Bitcoin's rebound too weak to confirm an uptrend. Despite a higher high at $87K, another leg down is still the most likely near-term path, targeting a higher low around $72K before a possible range and breakout. A sustained loss of $80K would expose liquidity near $73K-$75K; reclaiming $83K-$85K would give bulls more control. x.com  x.com 

Bitcoin's 64% supply-in-profit reading makes $80,000 or below worth watching during the bear-to-bull transition. At the October 25 close of $80,086, it matched the 64% reading at $75,000 on September 15. Historically, below 65% marks a reasonable correction in this phase, and lower prices offer better value. A 55%-60% reading would be best, but it may never arrive. The low of this pullback from $87,000 is unknown. x.com 

Long-term-holder coins bought above $85K leave Bitcoin facing resistance there. Short-term-holder cost bases provide support below, and realized losses are shrinking with each dip. Bitcoin has closed above $85K on only five days since January, never more than three in a row. x.com 

Bitcoin has no floor while the Binance hacker holds about $1.5B in BTC. Spot selling, absent US buyers and forced liquidations add pressure. Frozen stablecoins still leave the hacker with unfreezable ETH. A close below $78.3K puts $77.7K in play; BTC needs to reclaim $80K before a bottom call. Binance confirming full coverage could speed a recovery, while stolen ETH sales or more bad news risk another wave. Wider market weakness usually drives bigger drops. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

The current crypto-market shock was needed to form a bottom. Bitcoin will not fall below $60,000 again. x.com 

Bitcoin's bounce looks overbought and crowded, so lower prices in Q4 are slightly favored. The rally to the 200-day average beat expectations, hit 20-week cycle targets, leaving daily RSI at 85, with resistance at 80.6K and 82.8K. Fear & Greed is at a multi-year high, and heavy long leverage is likely to be flushed even if this is a major low. The four-year cycle points to a bottom from H2 2026 to early 2027, but whether it is in is unclear; failing a 68-69K 200-day test would mean a bear rally. … Show more

Bitcoin's rebound faces constrained upside from dealer hedging and weak US spot demand. Seventy percent of dealer gamma sits at $75,000-$82,000 ahead of Friday's $11B options expiry; the Coinbase premium had no positive days in October and an $83,000 fakeout keeps traders defensive. The Fed hold spurred relief, ETFs added $110.34M and $176M, and record US debt drives long-term accumulation. A hot PCE print would raise December hike odds and pressure Bitcoin through higher yields. x.com  x.com 

Bitcoin's resilience around $80k through the Fed decision leaves the $87.4k monthly-close bet intact if that floor holds, despite the missed $87k squeeze. The Fed held rates, two voters wanted a hike, and a December hike is now about 85% priced; BTC briefly reached $81.2k before giving it back. The October low is $79.2k; losing $80k would put $76k in play. x.com 

Whales waiting below while retail buys make Bitcoin vulnerable to a flush before a bear trap reverses it. After 3-5 days of chop, the path runs to $75K/$70K, rebounds to $87K, then targets $98K and $116K; the attached chart marks $126K as a mid-term target. x.com