NoName
Trader Since 2018, Bitcoin, Stocks, DeFi & Macro
A poor CPI reading and $1B in liquidations leave Bitcoin's rebound too weak to confirm an uptrend. Despite a higher high at $87K, another leg down is still the most likely near-term path, targeting a higher low around $72K before a possible range and breakout. A sustained loss of $80K would expose liquidity near $73K-$75K; reclaiming $83K-$85K would give bulls more control. x.com x.com
Bitcoin's July low looks increasingly like the cycle bottom, so no new major low is needed, though the next several months may be a broad, slowly rising range that shakes out longs and shorts before the next expansion. A sharp flush is possible near term: per Arkham data, the US government moved $1B to Coinbase after $500M the day before, which could signal preparation for a large sale. x.com x.com
Bitcoin's pre-FOMC pump looks vulnerable because such moves usually retrace afterward and sweep below prior lows. That pattern now points to roughly $78K. Earlier, liquidations into FOMC and Bitcoin's strong hold near $80K despite another $79K test had suggested the correction might be over and that it could be a bad time to be bearish. x.com x.com
Bitcoin still needs demand and short open interest before a bottom can be expected. Price reversed after taking liquidity at $84.6K; the nearest liquidity below is $79.6K, while $87K remains the strongest zone above and $90K is now the next target. Patience is warranted until that demand and short interest arrive; no bottom is expected yet. x.com
Bitcoin's 64% supply-in-profit reading makes $80,000 or below worth watching during the bear-to-bull transition. At the October 25 close of $80,086, it matched the 64% reading at $75,000 on September 15. Historically, below 65% marks a reasonable correction in this phase, and lower prices offer better value. A 55%-60% reading would be best, but it may never arrive. The low of this pullback from $87,000 is unknown. x.com
Whales waiting below while retail buys make Bitcoin vulnerable to a flush before a bear trap reverses it. After 3-5 days of chop, the path runs to $75K/$70K, rebounds to $87K, then targets $98K and $116K; the attached chart marks $126K as a mid-term target. x.com
Long-term-holder coins bought above $85K leave Bitcoin facing resistance there. Short-term-holder cost bases provide support below, and realized losses are shrinking with each dip. Bitcoin has closed above $85K on only five days since January, never more than three in a row. x.com
Bitcoin's resilience around $80k through the Fed decision leaves the $87.4k monthly-close bet intact if that floor holds, despite the missed $87k squeeze. The Fed held rates, two voters wanted a hike, and a December hike is now about 85% priced; BTC briefly reached $81.2k before giving it back. The October low is $79.2k; losing $80k would put $76k in play. x.com
Bitcoin has no floor while the Binance hacker holds about $1.5B in BTC. Spot selling, absent US buyers and forced liquidations add pressure. Frozen stablecoins still leave the hacker with unfreezable ETH. A close below $78.3K puts $77.7K in play; BTC needs to reclaim $80K before a bottom call. Binance confirming full coverage could speed a recovery, while stolen ETH sales or more bad news risk another wave. Wider market weakness usually drives bigger drops. x.com x.com x.com x.com
Bitcoin enters a liquidation phase this week that should dump it below $75K into major fair value gaps. A liquidity cluster is building at $87K and a sweep of it is a matter of time. The projected path runs $85K, $75K and $70K, then a long confirmation and a move to $100K. The best opportunity to buy Bitcoin should come this month. x.com
The current crypto-market shock was needed to form a bottom. Bitcoin will not fall below $60,000 again. x.com
Bitcoin's ETF floor may keep a continuing bear phase range-bound rather than end it. The dashboard assigns 55% to a $52-85k institutional range and 30% to a cyclical bear reaching $40-55k by Q4 2026-Q1 2027; only 9% goes to an $85-150k extension if macro conditions clear and flows revive. Bitcoin must hold about $85k into year-end or clear $100k this year before the bearish phase can be called over. x.com
