Bitcoin's past midterm-election selloffs each marked a cycle bottom, making Tuesday's election fear a buying opportunity at $78K-$75K. The declines were about 50% in both 2014 and 2018, then 25% in 2022; this time a drop of more than 10% looks unlikely as the drawdowns have moderated. x.com  x.com 

Bitcoin's resilience around $80k through the Fed decision leaves the $87.4k monthly-close bet intact if that floor holds, despite the missed $87k squeeze. The Fed held rates, two voters wanted a hike, and a December hike is now about 85% priced; BTC briefly reached $81.2k before giving it back. The October low is $79.2k; losing $80k would put $76k in play. x.com 

Bitcoin's pre-FOMC pump looks vulnerable because such moves usually retrace afterward and sweep below prior lows. That pattern now points to roughly $78K. Earlier, liquidations into FOMC and Bitcoin's strong hold near $80K despite another $79K test had suggested the correction might be over and that it could be a bad time to be bearish. x.com  x.com 

The current crypto-market shock was needed to form a bottom. Bitcoin will not fall below $60,000 again. x.com 

Bitcoin options show near-term midterm hedging but more upside bets by late November and December. November 6 bets spanned $75.2K-$85.1K, with puts in greater demand and costing more; at the time checked, November 27 had 1.7 calls per put and December 25 had 1.5. A weekly close below $75K is not expected, and the base case is chop between $75K and $93K until around next April. x.com  x.com 

Bitcoin still needs demand and short open interest before a bottom can be expected. Price reversed after taking liquidity at $84.6K; the nearest liquidity below is $79.6K, while $87K remains the strongest zone above and $90K is now the next target. Patience is warranted until that demand and short interest arrive; no bottom is expected yet. x.com 

Bitcoin's resilient spot ETF holders support a tentative June-bottom call. Holdings fell only 11% while Bitcoin fell 53%, its shallowest bear market versus 77% and 84% in the last two; ETFs have since added 87,000 BTC. The bounce stayed strong amid higher yields. Galaxy Research says the bear market ended in June, citing less long-term-holder selling and five weekly closes above the 50-week average; it would reconsider on a weekly close below that average, near $76,540. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Bitcoin's near-term macro backdrop is not yet favorable because the Fed balance sheet is stuck at $6.75 trillion, so patience is warranted. The Fed will eventually have to step in for debt markets. ETF inflows leave time for October to turn positive, while Bitwise raised its 2036 target to $1.6 million and says institutions may allocate 1% to 5% as adoption and debasement-hedge demand rise. A U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve may start buying very soon once crypto rules are settled. x.com  x.com  … Show more

A poor CPI reading and $1B in liquidations leave Bitcoin's rebound too weak to confirm an uptrend. Despite a higher high at $87K, another leg down is still the most likely near-term path, targeting a higher low around $72K before a possible range and breakout. A sustained loss of $80K would expose liquidity near $73K-$75K; reclaiming $83K-$85K would give bulls more control. x.com  x.com 

Kevin Warsh's very dovish statement supports the Bitcoin pivot-low scenario and a move higher this quarter. In this favored scenario, Bitcoin makes another higher high in the $90k-$100k area, the stock market reaches new all-time highs, and altcoins follow suit. x.com