Bitcoin's resilience around $80k through the Fed decision leaves the $87.4k monthly-close bet intact if that floor holds, despite the missed $87k squeeze. The Fed held rates, two voters wanted a hike, and a December hike is now about 85% priced; BTC briefly reached $81.2k before giving it back. The October low is $79.2k; losing $80k would put $76k in play. x.com 

Bitcoin's past midterm-election selloffs each marked a cycle bottom, making Tuesday's election fear a buying opportunity at $78K-$75K. The declines were about 50% in both 2014 and 2018, then 25% in 2022; this time a drop of more than 10% looks unlikely as the drawdowns have moderated. x.com  x.com 

Bitcoin's rebound faces constrained upside from dealer hedging and weak US spot demand. Seventy percent of dealer gamma sits at $75,000-$82,000 ahead of Friday's $11B options expiry; the Coinbase premium had no positive days in October and an $83,000 fakeout keeps traders defensive. The Fed hold spurred relief, ETFs added $110.34M and $176M, and record US debt drives long-term accumulation. A hot PCE print would raise December hike odds and pressure Bitcoin through higher yields. x.com  x.com 

Bitcoin's 64% supply-in-profit reading makes $80,000 or below worth watching during the bear-to-bull transition. At the October 25 close of $80,086, it matched the 64% reading at $75,000 on September 15. Historically, below 65% marks a reasonable correction in this phase, and lower prices offer better value. A 55%-60% reading would be best, but it may never arrive. The low of this pullback from $87,000 is unknown. x.com 

Bitcoin's breakout from a three-month base looks bullish, with a bull flag above the 200 EMA pointing to $82.5K in October and close to $100K by year-end. BlackRock's IBIT participated heavily in the move while the HODL ETF sold into it, a divergence worth watching to track any reversal. x.com  x.com 

Bitcoin's pre-FOMC pump looks vulnerable because such moves usually retrace afterward and sweep below prior lows. That pattern now points to roughly $78K. Earlier, liquidations into FOMC and Bitcoin's strong hold near $80K despite another $79K test had suggested the correction might be over and that it could be a bad time to be bearish. x.com  x.com 

Bitcoin looks set for a massive short squeeze over the next few days: a large liquidity cluster has formed around $84K on the three-day timeframe, giving price a clear target. x.com 

Bitcoin reaching $100k before year-end looks very doable at its current pace, so Polymarket's odds on that outcome look worth betting on. x.com 

Bitcoin still needs demand and short open interest before a bottom can be expected. Price reversed after taking liquidity at $84.6K; the nearest liquidity below is $79.6K, while $87K remains the strongest zone above and $90K is now the next target. Patience is warranted until that demand and short interest arrive; no bottom is expected yet. x.com 

Bitcoin may fake a break below 75,600, recover, and keep rising into the September 15 final ruling on the Clarity crypto bill and the September 16 Fed meeting before selling off on the news. Rate-hike expectations have risen but should ease once the next two weeks of data arrive. Ether likely repeats last May-July: a pullback, a fake breakout to 2,700, a sell-the-news drop to 2,100 after the 15th and 16th, then further gains, with bitcoin following the same pattern. x.com