Bitcoin's halving and the next major US election occurring in the same year could recreate 2024's rally. The bullish Bitcoin view is for 2027-28, not 2026; a single monthly close does not settle its 1.5- to 2-year outlook. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Bitcoin's 64% supply-in-profit reading makes $80,000 or below worth watching during the bear-to-bull transition. At the October 25 close of $80,086, it matched the 64% reading at $75,000 on September 15. Historically, below 65% marks a reasonable correction in this phase, and lower prices offer better value. A 55%-60% reading would be best, but it may never arrive. The low of this pullback from $87,000 is unknown. x.com 

Bitcoin's pre-FOMC pump looks vulnerable because such moves usually retrace afterward and sweep below prior lows. That pattern now points to roughly $78K. Earlier, liquidations into FOMC and Bitcoin's strong hold near $80K despite another $79K test had suggested the correction might be over and that it could be a bad time to be bearish. x.com  x.com 

Bitcoin's resilience around $80k through the Fed decision leaves the $87.4k monthly-close bet intact if that floor holds, despite the missed $87k squeeze. The Fed held rates, two voters wanted a hike, and a December hike is now about 85% priced; BTC briefly reached $81.2k before giving it back. The October low is $79.2k; losing $80k would put $76k in play. x.com 

Bitcoin options show near-term midterm hedging but more upside bets by late November and December. November 6 bets spanned $75.2K-$85.1K, with puts in greater demand and costing more; at the time checked, November 27 had 1.7 calls per put and December 25 had 1.5. A weekly close below $75K is not expected, and the base case is chop between $75K and $93K until around next April. x.com  x.com 

Long-term-holder coins bought above $85K leave Bitcoin facing resistance there. Short-term-holder cost bases provide support below, and realized losses are shrinking with each dip. Bitcoin has closed above $85K on only five days since January, never more than three in a row. x.com 

The current crypto-market shock was needed to form a bottom. Bitcoin will not fall below $60,000 again. x.com 

An accelerated IEA emergency oil release could ease inflation pressure and help turn markets, including bitcoin, around. Strong Meta earnings showing AI returns or a softer Fed outlook on further hikes could also calm risk assets. Bitcoin may see another quick selloff first, but it looks capable of holding $80K through the next few days; holding there would suggest much of the fear is priced in. x.com 

Bitcoin's ETF floor may keep a continuing bear phase range-bound rather than end it. The dashboard assigns 55% to a $52-85k institutional range and 30% to a cyclical bear reaching $40-55k by Q4 2026-Q1 2027; only 9% goes to an $85-150k extension if macro conditions clear and flows revive. Bitcoin must hold about $85k into year-end or clear $100k this year before the bearish phase can be called over. x.com 

Bitcoin's macro-risk ratios doubled the time spent declining, pointing to one longer cycle rather than two four-year cycles. The July 2026 low came 44 months in, with perhaps another 52 months for the larger cycle to complete; elevated bitcoin dominance, low altcoin dominance and subdued ETH/BTC echo 2016 and 2020. Bitcoin is very likely to exceed $250,000, with a likely 2028 top followed by a multi-year 70%-80%+ bear market. Ether should outperform bitcoin going forward. x.com  x.com