Bitcoin's pre-FOMC pump looks vulnerable because such moves usually retrace afterward and sweep below prior lows. That pattern now points to roughly $78K. Earlier, liquidations into FOMC and Bitcoin's strong hold near $80K despite another $79K test had suggested the correction might be over and that it could be a bad time to be bearish. x.com  x.com 

Whales waiting below while retail buys make Bitcoin vulnerable to a flush before a bear trap reverses it. After 3-5 days of chop, the path runs to $75K/$70K, rebounds to $87K, then targets $98K and $116K; the attached chart marks $126K as a mid-term target. x.com 

Bitcoin's past midterm-election selloffs each marked a cycle bottom, making Tuesday's election fear a buying opportunity at $78K-$75K. The declines were about 50% in both 2014 and 2018, then 25% in 2022; this time a drop of more than 10% looks unlikely as the drawdowns have moderated. x.com  x.com 

A poor CPI reading and $1B in liquidations leave Bitcoin's rebound too weak to confirm an uptrend. Despite a higher high at $87K, another leg down is still the most likely near-term path, targeting a higher low around $72K before a possible range and breakout. A sustained loss of $80K would expose liquidity near $73K-$75K; reclaiming $83K-$85K would give bulls more control. x.com  x.com 

Bitcoin still needs demand and short open interest before a bottom can be expected. Price reversed after taking liquidity at $84.6K; the nearest liquidity below is $79.6K, while $87K remains the strongest zone above and $90K is now the next target. Patience is warranted until that demand and short interest arrive; no bottom is expected yet. x.com 

Bitcoin's 64% supply-in-profit reading makes $80,000 or below worth watching during the bear-to-bull transition. At the October 25 close of $80,086, it matched the 64% reading at $75,000 on September 15. Historically, below 65% marks a reasonable correction in this phase, and lower prices offer better value. A 55%-60% reading would be best, but it may never arrive. The low of this pullback from $87,000 is unknown. x.com 

Long-term-holder coins bought above $85K leave Bitcoin facing resistance there. Short-term-holder cost bases provide support below, and realized losses are shrinking with each dip. Bitcoin has closed above $85K on only five days since January, never more than three in a row. x.com 

Bitcoin's ETF floor may keep a continuing bear phase range-bound rather than end it. The dashboard assigns 55% to a $52-85k institutional range and 30% to a cyclical bear reaching $40-55k by Q4 2026-Q1 2027; only 9% goes to an $85-150k extension if macro conditions clear and flows revive. Bitcoin must hold about $85k into year-end or clear $100k this year before the bearish phase can be called over. x.com 

Bitcoin's resilience around $80k through the Fed decision leaves the $87.4k monthly-close bet intact if that floor holds, despite the missed $87k squeeze. The Fed held rates, two voters wanted a hike, and a December hike is now about 85% priced; BTC briefly reached $81.2k before giving it back. The October low is $79.2k; losing $80k would put $76k in play. x.com 

Bitcoin lacks a clear near-term catalyst for a meaningful rebound after a terrible 2026: instead of reclaiming $100K as many expected, it is struggling near $60K, about 33% below where it began the year. That could change. x.com