Charles Edwards
Founder of Capriole Investments, Digital-Asset Investing
Bitcoin's inability to reverse hacks makes decentralization a weakness as AI threats outpace security. Tether halted $1.8B from the Binance hack, showing the value of intervention; exploits take minutes, patches days or weeks. AI may be a greater threat to crypto than quantum, which Bitcoin has made effectively no progress on. New highs look increasingly distant without a Core-governed quantum-proof roadmap; quantum alone leaves today's elliptic curves under five years. x.comÂ
Bitcoin's extreme, sustained put/call ratio suggests its local downside has been relatively capped in comparable periods, though there are no guarantees. The comparison is with prior stretches of similar duration above 1, none of which saw a 50% drop; it is not a claim about isolated days. x.com x.comÂ
Bitcoin's major bearish risk is its community's disturbing lack of interest in preparing for quantum computers that could break its encryption. At least four companies target meaningfully powerful quantum computers by the early 2030s, quantum funding has grown by tens of billions in two years, qubit timelines keep improving, and the qubit count needed to break encryption keeps falling. There is still time for a fork adding post-quantum cryptography, with little to lose by acting now. x.comÂ
Bitcoin may need sustained demand above all to outweigh selling pressure, since even favorable catalysts have coincided with declines. BTC fell despite rate cuts, a pro-crypto president, institutional adoption and rising liquidity; it now faces rate hikes, war in Iran, inflation, AI-bubble fears, quantum risks and AI-driven crypto hacks. x.comÂ
Bitcoin's quantum risk is manageable because its network could probably be upgraded in about 90 days when quantum technology is eventually created. There is no real substantive threat to the network, and upgrading now would increase the attack layer. x.comÂ
A major exchange hack looks set to push Bitcoin down to a higher low. DeItaone reported $2.77 billion in Binance-wallet outflows amid drain suspicions, initially without confirmation of a hack. The hack was later described as confirmed and larger than first thought; despite initial assurances, user funds are probably not fully safe. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Bitcoin's failure to decouple from AI leaves it at risk around the coming big hyperscaler earnings week. That linkage is worrying enough to prompt a 'timber' warning. x.comÂ
Bitcoin's supply and institutional buyer base are tightening, while an AI-hacking challenge failed to breach its security. A wallet funded with 100 BTC remained untouched after months of public challenge; fewer than 900,000 BTC remain to be mined, and Fidelity bought $24.5 million for its ETF. Senator Hagerty says the US will hold its 200,000 BTC and wants to buy more. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Bitcoin has no floor while the Binance hacker holds about $1.5B in BTC. Spot selling, absent US buyers and forced liquidations add pressure. Frozen stablecoins still leave the hacker with unfreezable ETH. A close below $78.3K puts $77.7K in play; BTC needs to reclaim $80K before a bottom call. Binance confirming full coverage could speed a recovery, while stolen ETH sales or more bad news risk another wave. Wider market weakness usually drives bigger drops. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
The Binance hack is part of the trouble Bitcoin's charts had been signaling. A four-year-cycle low looks to be incoming. x.com x.comÂ
Quantum-computing fears make a further bitcoin dip a buying opportunity, because the quantum threat is still years away. The open debate is when and how fast the bitcoin community can coordinate a response, so another 5% drop on those fears would be worth buying. x.comÂ
Bitcoin faces additional selling pressure because Binance's SAFU fund has 15,000 BTC to sell to cover hack losses. That supply will also suppress its price. x.comÂ
