Bitcoin looks interesting because crypto has not joined the stock bull run, leaving sentiment quiet while the setup starts to make sense. The aim is to avoid chasing what has already run the hardest. x.com
Ashton Invests
Long-Term Equity Investor, Fundamental Stock Research
Investors will inevitably seek the strongest trends, value and opportunities as the speculative AI trade bursts, making that shift incredibly bullish for Bitcoin. x.com
Crypto still has room to rise because institutional adoption is accelerating and good altcoins remain underowned globally. Traditional finance is bringing assets onchain, and progress since five years ago makes it impossible to be bearish. Bitcoin looks stronger than overstretched altcoins and has shaken off severe bad news; more chop or shakeouts could come before the market moves higher. x.com
The US dollar's Stage 2 advance and a weak overall market tilt the evidence bearish for Bitcoin. Most crypto stocks are in Stage 4, and too little else confirms a new Stage 2 move. Bitcoin is likely to fail its recent move and resume Stage 4. x.com x.com
Bitcoin's near-term macro backdrop is not yet favorable because the Fed balance sheet is stuck at $6.75 trillion, so patience is warranted. The Fed will eventually have to step in for debt markets. ETF inflows leave time for October to turn positive, while Bitwise raised its 2036 target to $1.6 million and says institutions may allocate 1% to 5% as adoption and debasement-hedge demand rise. A U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve may start buying very soon once crypto rules are settled. x.com x.com … Show more
Kevin Warsh's very dovish statement supports the Bitcoin pivot-low scenario and a move higher this quarter. In this favored scenario, Bitcoin makes another higher high in the $90k-$100k area, the stock market reaches new all-time highs, and altcoins follow suit. x.com
Bitcoin is unlikely to stage a 2020-style V-shaped recovery because crypto keeps competing with AI for capital, and the flows have clearly gone to equities, especially AI names. The 2020 rebound followed a pandemic, a doubling of the money supply, rate cuts and stimulus checks; today global liquidity is at a record, but rates could rise. Bitcoin may still be a great buy here. @Bobby_1111888 argues the macro backdrop is the most 2020-like since then and the AI headwind may be turning. x.com x.com
Crypto's Wild West reputation creates market inefficiencies and, therefore, great opportunity. It looks to have decoupled from stocks over the past year, though the risky narrative persists. x.com
Bitcoin is a strong buy while sentiment is at its lowest, because beaten-down assets offer more upside with less risk. Bitcoin needs to rise 100% to reclaim its all-time high and ether 180%, yet after last year's chase toward $200,000 nobody wants them now. The latest crash was triggered by Michael Saylor selling 32 BTC. Bitcoin works as a store of value and ether would underpin asset tokenization, making both portfolio diversifiers. x.com x.com x.com
Bitcoin has been in free fall since Philippe Laffont told CNBC he no longer finds it interesting, given attractive new secular-growth IPOs and stablecoins. Chip stocks offer real earnings, value and momentum instead, and hawkish talk from new Fed chair Kevin Warsh adds pressure. x.com x.com
Institutional clients moving into Bitcoin add real backing to the AI-to-crypto rotation. T. Rowe Price's digital-assets head Blue Macellari said the $1.86T manager is actively bringing clients into Bitcoin and other crypto assets; trillions in capital are expected onchain over the next few years. At a conference with well over $50T, if not $100T, in AUM, many said the rotation has begun. It should accelerate in Q4, and the next crypto leg will be aggressive, with many still sidelined. x.com … Show more