The Few Bets That Matter
Concentrated Equity Investor, AI Infrastructure
Ethereum could be one of the best trades this year as it breaks a year-long downtrend amid complete disinterest. It reclaimed its 21- and 50-day moving averages and held them for a month while the stock market went through a historic drawdown. Many will likely call the move fake, but it doesn't look that way. x.com
Ethereum is getting ready to push through its 10-month downtrend, and like Bitcoin it is completely overlooked, a setup for large returns as liquidity rotates out of some risky sectors. If both break out, Strategy and BitMine would be more interesting than any CPO or AI names in the market. x.com
Crypto's Wild West reputation creates market inefficiencies and, therefore, great opportunity. It looks to have decoupled from stocks over the past year, though the risky narrative persists. x.com
Ethereum's upside looks worth the bet because the payoff to its prior high is much larger than the downside, and buyers still respond to good news. There is roughly 16% down to $1,950 versus a little over 2x back to the prior all-time high. LIT caught a sharp bid around its US regulatory plans, and CHIP rallied 40% around a $1 million buyback; that response looks like a bull-market sign. x.com
Ethereum Foundation selling is the best sell signal in crypto: the last time it sold, ETH dropped 9%. x.com
Bitcoin and ether’s resilience despite months of speculative capital being disintegrated may be a tell. They are the investments to hold or add, not trade. x.com x.com
Crypto's coming run will be much larger than 2020's because stock-market and gold runs into 2026 exceeded those into 2020. Bitcoin's and Ethereum's runs into 2025 also exceeded those into 2019. Macro-risk ratios across stocks, metals, oil, PMI and crypto again resemble 2016 and 2020, positioning Bitcoin, Ethereum and altcoins for a major bull run. Focus on 2027-28; the one-year median altcoin return against Bitcoin is still -17.5%. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com
Ethereum feels weak with no clear catalyst, despite an appealing story of institutional adoption for real utility and infrastructure. The crypto craze may have petered out after about 15 years, and bitter memories of losses from counterparty blowups such as Voyager and FTX may never fade. x.com
Institutional participation could make the coming altcoin cycle bigger than any before it, including 2017. Ethereum has broken its long-term downtrend against bitcoin and is retesting support, bolstering confidence in that setup. x.com
Ether should lead the next leg because the recent decline was a mid-cycle bear, not a full-cycle bear. A full-cycle bear resets the market and is followed by a bitcoin-dominated recovery that takes years; a mid-cycle bear primes the market, with ETH/BTC trending up and altcoin dominance bottoming during the drop. New highs then take months, not years, in an ETH- and altcoin-led run that is already under way, with the bottom forming higher than before. x.com x.com
Ethereum faces further downside as smart money sells into strength during distribution. A move toward $2,070 comes first; a break there puts $1,800 in view, with a possible local bottom near $1,600-$1,700 where liquidity sits. Until that sweep, bounces are for selling; a real reversal comes only afterward. x.com
Ethereum should do well this cycle because tokenisation and AI are deeply intertwined, with autonomous AI agents needing to transact via ETH and stablecoins since they can't access traditional banking. Tokenisation will also unlock price discovery for illiquid assets in private equity, private credit and venture capital. A bottom signal came when influencer TrustlessState sold a week before the ETH/BTC low; ETH is up 25% since, with a golden cross and a move above its 50-week average. x.com
