kook
Crypto Trader, Creator of KookLetter
An Aave whale's leveraged Ethereum accumulation supports a return to $2,600 before his borrowing capacity runs out. Since September 29 he has borrowed $25m, withdrawn 12,549 ETH from Binance and added another 9,000 yesterday; his average is $2,553 versus ETH at $2,427, with a 1.51 health factor. x.comÂ
Ethereum's strong ecosystem is not translating into enough ETH value capture to support significant appreciation unless that changes. The Ethereum Foundation selling ETH again is frustrating; buybacks and stronger incentives for L2s to accumulate and buy back ETH could improve the token's economics. Fundstrat, which owns roughly 5% of the supply, has a huge opportunity to push for better value capture. x.com x.comÂ
Ethereum faces selling pressure because BlackRock's reported ETH sales suggest a major holder is exiting while others keep buying. BlackRock reportedly started selling Ethereum today, with more than $100 million sold; the broader crypto selling looks anomalous. x.comÂ
Ethereum's upside looks worth the bet because the payoff to its prior high is much larger than the downside, and buyers still respond to good news. There is roughly 16% down to $1,950 versus a little over 2x back to the prior all-time high. LIT caught a sharp bid around its US regulatory plans, and CHIP rallied 40% around a $1 million buyback; that response looks like a bull-market sign. x.comÂ
Ethereum faces further downside as smart money sells into strength during distribution. A move toward $2,070 comes first; a break there puts $1,800 in view, with a possible local bottom near $1,600-$1,700 where liquidity sits. Until that sweep, bounces are for selling; a real reversal comes only afterward. x.comÂ
Ethereum faces slightly higher near-term selling risk as net inflows raise Binance's sellable ETH supply. Some 55,471 ETH entered and 47,596 left, net 7,875, though both flows have slowed. If inflows persist this week with ETF outflows and high US Treasury yields, pressure could grow around the Fed decision. Rising cumulative ETH 2.0 transactions bode well for network use, not direct demand or relief today. Losing $2,280-2,300 adds downside risk; recovery needs flow and price confirmation. x.comÂ
Ethereum's Coinbase discount is as deep as at the macro bottom, so it's time to start thinking about huge spot buys. US institutions are selling into the same discount, as shown by the negative Coinbase premium. x.comÂ
Weak liquidity and insufficient buying pressure leave altcoins vulnerable to another liquidation wave. Many sit near support while selling pressure persists, so even a small selloff could trigger liquidations; a bounce is still possible, but the bottom is not convincing yet. A further major drop would offer better entries in bitcoin, ether, Pendle and Bittensor, whose long-term potential remains intact. x.comÂ
Ether's price is falling while open interest rises, meaning leverage is building into the dump, a setup that tends to end badly for longs. x.comÂ
Buyer pressure is returning in Ethereum, as it did ahead of the last reversal. The Cryptic Pressure Engine flags that pressure again, supporting an expectation that ETH will soon find a bottom and turn higher; the bottom has not yet been confirmed. x.com x.comÂ
Bitcoin has no floor while the Binance hacker holds about $1.5B in BTC. Spot selling, absent US buyers and forced liquidations add pressure. Frozen stablecoins still leave the hacker with unfreezable ETH. A close below $78.3K puts $77.7K in play; BTC needs to reclaim $80K before a bottom call. Binance confirming full coverage could speed a recovery, while stolen ETH sales or more bad news risk another wave. Wider market weakness usually drives bigger drops. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ