Luca - Cryptic Trades
Markets Researcher at Cryptic Trades
Ethereum has reached the high-timeframe support range that marked its April 2025 bottom, where a more durable bottom is likely to form over the coming days or weeks before a reversal higher. Like bitcoin, it has formed a series of untapped lows on low timeframes, a sign that market makers are accumulating spot while retail capitulates. Sub-$1K is not the likely outcome; this is a good high-timeframe accumulation zone, though low-timeframe downside is still possible. x.comÂ
Ethereum's upside looks worth the bet because the payoff to its prior high is much larger than the downside, and buyers still respond to good news. There is roughly 16% down to $1,950 versus a little over 2x back to the prior all-time high. LIT caught a sharp bid around its US regulatory plans, and CHIP rallied 40% around a $1 million buyback; that response looks like a bull-market sign. x.comÂ
Institutional participation could make the coming altcoin cycle bigger than any before it, including 2017. Ethereum has broken its long-term downtrend against bitcoin and is retesting support, bolstering confidence in that setup. x.comÂ
Ethereum faces further downside as smart money sells into strength during distribution. A move toward $2,070 comes first; a break there puts $1,800 in view, with a possible local bottom near $1,600-$1,700 where liquidity sits. Until that sweep, bounces are for selling; a real reversal comes only afterward. x.comÂ
Bitcoin still needs demand and short open interest before a bottom can be expected. Price reversed after taking liquidity at $84.6K; the nearest liquidity below is $79.6K, while $87K remains the strongest zone above and $90K is now the next target. Patience is warranted until that demand and short interest arrive; no bottom is expected yet. x.comÂ
Bitcoin and ether have likely made their higher-timeframe bottoms, with the market front-running the typical four-year-cycle bottom. Clear bottoming indicators were flashing near the lows over the summer. Anyone only starting to buy now should be prepared for a world of pain and choppy trading through the rest of 2026. x.comÂ
Ethereum faces slightly higher near-term selling risk as net inflows raise Binance's sellable ETH supply. Some 55,471 ETH entered and 47,596 left, net 7,875, though both flows have slowed. If inflows persist this week with ETF outflows and high US Treasury yields, pressure could grow around the Fed decision. Rising cumulative ETH 2.0 transactions bode well for network use, not direct demand or relief today. Losing $2,280-2,300 adds downside risk; recovery needs flow and price confirmation. x.comÂ
Bitfinex whales are opening Ethereum longs at a pace seen only once before, in 2020 ahead of a 12x rally. Retail remains fearful around $2,300, but that positioning points to a rally. x.comÂ
Ethereum looks set up for a bottom and a big run. Major ETH bottoms typically tap a prior high, pull back hard to shake out weak hands, then rip, and the current chart looks almost identical to the last few before big runs. The CLARITY Act vote could be the catalyst that ends the dip and starts the run. x.comÂ
Ethereum's strong ecosystem is not translating into enough ETH value capture to support significant appreciation unless that changes. The Ethereum Foundation selling ETH again is frustrating; buybacks and stronger incentives for L2s to accumulate and buy back ETH could improve the token's economics. Fundstrat, which owns roughly 5% of the supply, has a huge opportunity to push for better value capture. x.com x.comÂ
Ethereum looks set for an expansion because the macro setup that preceded past ones is repeating: whenever the copper-to-gold ratio bottomed and the PMI flipped, ETH expanded. Most people have lost hope, and these rallies come when least expected. x.comÂ