Masa’s Son
Non-Consensus Long/Short Technology Investor
Bitcoin's liquidation flush, worse than October 10, may be the clearing event the market needed to eventually take out previous all-time highs. Expected returns on the crypto majors are now on par with or better than most altcoins, so the countertrend rally, when it comes, should be violent. Strategy shares falling to $100 would be a buy. x.com x.com
Bitcoin is beaten down and lagging AI flows, setting up a capital rotation into it once Korea's KOSPI cools, with 2-3x near-term upside. The market has not appreciated that agentic AI will run on crypto, government and institutional distrust should grow as AI takes off, and bitcoin also serves as an inflation hedge. x.com
Crypto still has room to rise because institutional adoption is accelerating and good altcoins remain underowned globally. Traditional finance is bringing assets onchain, and progress since five years ago makes it impossible to be bearish. Bitcoin looks stronger than overstretched altcoins and has shaken off severe bad news; more chop or shakeouts could come before the market moves higher. x.com
The current crypto-market shock was needed to form a bottom. Bitcoin will not fall below $60,000 again. x.com
Bitcoin's pre-FOMC pump looks vulnerable because such moves usually retrace afterward and sweep below prior lows. That pattern now points to roughly $78K. Earlier, liquidations into FOMC and Bitcoin's strong hold near $80K despite another $79K test had suggested the correction might be over and that it could be a bad time to be bearish. x.com x.com
Kevin Warsh's very dovish statement supports the Bitcoin pivot-low scenario and a move higher this quarter. In this favored scenario, Bitcoin makes another higher high in the $90k-$100k area, the stock market reaches new all-time highs, and altcoins follow suit. x.com
Bitcoin's recovery can continue because the crypto market has been little affected by uncertainty and its worst days are behind it. At this stage Bitcoin resembles gold in early 2025, with crypto recovering from its bottom and moving upward. x.com
Bitcoin offers poor risk/reward after a head fake on the majors, with liquidity vanishing and altcoins lacking momentum. That setup likely means a painful liquidation of all the sloppy risk piled on. x.com x.com
Bitcoin's rally is the most hated kind, which is often how things look after a major bottom. After false starts, failed rallies and lower lows, people expect every bounce to fail, and the more of them wait for the next dump, the more fuel there is for price to keep squeezing higher. A correction will come sooner or later, but that alone would not mean the bear market is back. x.com
Bitcoin gains a major legitimacy signal from ICE's involvement in a Hyperliquid futures venture, giving prospective buyers cover to invest. Per @standuquesne, trade.xyz is partnering with ICE to bring 24/7 perpetual futures on Hyperliquid to the US. Despite nonstop bad headlines keeping price near $80k, crypto fundamentals are improving; bitcoin may need only time, even if it chops or dips to $76k first. x.com x.com
Bitcoin may need sustained demand above all to outweigh selling pressure, since even favorable catalysts have coincided with declines. BTC fell despite rate cuts, a pro-crypto president, institutional adoption and rising liquidity; it now faces rate hikes, war in Iran, inflation, AI-bubble fears, quantum risks and AI-driven crypto hacks. x.com
Crypto's coming run will be much larger than 2020's because stock-market and gold runs into 2026 exceeded those into 2020. Bitcoin's and Ethereum's runs into 2025 also exceeded those into 2019. Macro-risk ratios across stocks, metals, oil, PMI and crypto again resemble 2016 and 2020, positioning Bitcoin, Ethereum and altcoins for a major bull run. Focus on 2027-28; the one-year median altcoin return against Bitcoin is still -17.5%. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com
