Titan
Crypto Market Analyst & Trader
Bitcoin's rally is the most hated kind, which is often how things look after a major bottom. After false starts, failed rallies and lower lows, people expect every bounce to fail, and the more of them wait for the next dump, the more fuel there is for price to keep squeezing higher. A correction will come sooner or later, but that alone would not mean the bear market is back. x.com
The current crypto-market shock was needed to form a bottom. Bitcoin will not fall below $60,000 again. x.com
Bitcoin's 64% supply-in-profit reading makes $80,000 or below worth watching during the bear-to-bull transition. At the October 25 close of $80,086, it matched the 64% reading at $75,000 on September 15. Historically, below 65% marks a reasonable correction in this phase, and lower prices offer better value. A 55%-60% reading would be best, but it may never arrive. The low of this pullback from $87,000 is unknown. x.com
Bitcoin's pre-FOMC pump looks vulnerable because such moves usually retrace afterward and sweep below prior lows. That pattern now points to roughly $78K. Earlier, liquidations into FOMC and Bitcoin's strong hold near $80K despite another $79K test had suggested the correction might be over and that it could be a bad time to be bearish. x.com x.com
Bitcoin's second-leg squeeze could be a big one as the dollar falls and rates back off. Traders positioned for an easy gap fill got caught right before the spring higher, and upside volume is returning. x.com
Bitcoin's bull run looks close because bearish comments on the timeline are the contrarian signal that has always appeared just before one. People call the current move a fakeout; buy when others are bearish and sell when they become overly bullish. x.com
Bitcoin may need sustained demand above all to outweigh selling pressure, since even favorable catalysts have coincided with declines. BTC fell despite rate cuts, a pro-crypto president, institutional adoption and rising liquidity; it now faces rate hikes, war in Iran, inflation, AI-bubble fears, quantum risks and AI-driven crypto hacks. x.com
Bitcoin's near-term macro backdrop is not yet favorable because the Fed balance sheet is stuck at $6.75 trillion, so patience is warranted. The Fed will eventually have to step in for debt markets. ETF inflows leave time for October to turn positive, while Bitwise raised its 2036 target to $1.6 million and says institutions may allocate 1% to 5% as adoption and debasement-hedge demand rise. A U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve may start buying very soon once crypto rules are settled. x.com x.com … Show more
Bitcoin's liquidation flush, worse than October 10, may be the clearing event the market needed to eventually take out previous all-time highs. Expected returns on the crypto majors are now on par with or better than most altcoins, so the countertrend rally, when it comes, should be violent. Strategy shares falling to $100 would be a buy. x.com x.com
Bitcoin still needs demand and short open interest before a bottom can be expected. Price reversed after taking liquidity at $84.6K; the nearest liquidity below is $79.6K, while $87K remains the strongest zone above and $90K is now the next target. Patience is warranted until that demand and short interest arrive; no bottom is expected yet. x.com
Bitcoin and Ethereum's pullback is a nothing burger meant to shake people out, and this phase will lead to the next breakout higher. Bears are doubling down on shorts, with open interest rising while funding rates have turned negative. x.com
