Bitcoin's 64% supply-in-profit reading makes $80,000 or below worth watching during the bear-to-bull transition. At the October 25 close of $80,086, it matched the 64% reading at $75,000 on September 15. Historically, below 65% marks a reasonable correction in this phase, and lower prices offer better value. A 55%-60% reading would be best, but it may never arrive. The low of this pullback from $87,000 is unknown. x.com 

A hawkish Fed surprise could briefly pressure Bitcoin, but any dip remains a chance to accumulate. Kalshi odds of a rate hike ticked up before Bitcoin weakened, and odds of a dissenting vote spiked ahead of FOMC; dissents are usually hawkish. Expect more red just after the announcement only if that signal materializes. x.com 

Bitcoin's pre-FOMC pump looks vulnerable because such moves usually retrace afterward and sweep below prior lows. That pattern now points to roughly $78K. Earlier, liquidations into FOMC and Bitcoin's strong hold near $80K despite another $79K test had suggested the correction might be over and that it could be a bad time to be bearish. x.com  x.com 

Kevin Warsh's very dovish statement supports the Bitcoin pivot-low scenario and a move higher this quarter. In this favored scenario, Bitcoin makes another higher high in the $90k-$100k area, the stock market reaches new all-time highs, and altcoins follow suit. x.com 

A gold-trade unwind might be the real catalyst to send Bitcoin higher, rather than the AI-trade unwind many expect. The gold unwind is already happening: since late July, gold futures are down 0.7% while Bitcoin is up 26.5%. x.com  x.com 

Bitcoin may need sustained demand above all to outweigh selling pressure, since even favorable catalysts have coincided with declines. BTC fell despite rate cuts, a pro-crypto president, institutional adoption and rising liquidity; it now faces rate hikes, war in Iran, inflation, AI-bubble fears, quantum risks and AI-driven crypto hacks. x.com 

Bitcoin's rally is the most hated kind, which is often how things look after a major bottom. After false starts, failed rallies and lower lows, people expect every bounce to fail, and the more of them wait for the next dump, the more fuel there is for price to keep squeezing higher. A correction will come sooner or later, but that alone would not mean the bear market is back. x.com 

Bitcoin's halving and the next major US election occurring in the same year could recreate 2024's rally. The bullish Bitcoin view is for 2027-28, not 2026; a single monthly close does not settle its 1.5- to 2-year outlook. x.com  x.com  x.com 

The Binance hack is part of the trouble Bitcoin's charts had been signaling. A four-year-cycle low looks to be incoming. x.com  x.com 

Bitcoin's past midterm-election selloffs each marked a cycle bottom, making Tuesday's election fear a buying opportunity at $78K-$75K. The declines were about 50% in both 2014 and 2018, then 25% in 2022; this time a drop of more than 10% looks unlikely as the drawdowns have moderated. x.com  x.com