Bitcoin benefits as the risk of creating gold through alchemy has entered public consciousness. That perceived threat to gold's scarcity supports a long Bitcoin position as a persistent theme. x.com 

Bitcoin should outperform gold by at least 3x over the next few years as the BTC/gold ratio nears breakout. The pair has formed a multi-cycle ascending triangle since the 2017-18 cycle, and after about seven years of compression it sits near the apex; the longer a pattern consolidates, the bigger the breakout. Bitcoin is still massively underowned for its liquidity and market size. Gold should still do well as Fed money printing brings inflation, but bitcoin will be the faster horse. x.com 

Bitcoin is nearly done as momentum has vanished and the world has largely moved on from it. If it saw true inflows, it wouldn't be this weak while markets hit all-time highs in a risk-on environment. It needs an 80% rise just to regain its all-time high, and talk of $1 million bitcoin or matching gold's market cap is over. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

A gold-trade unwind might be the real catalyst to send Bitcoin higher, rather than the AI-trade unwind many expect. The gold unwind is already happening: since late July, gold futures are down 0.7% while Bitcoin is up 26.5%. x.com  x.com 

Bitcoin could draw big institutional money once it gets a real slot in bank model portfolios; a bullish research forecast alone is not enough. JPMorgan projects 10% annual returns over 10-15 years, ahead of US large-cap stocks at 7.5% and gold at 5.5%, but excludes Bitcoin from its main risk models because its links to other assets are unstable. Bitcoin could top $100,000, but keep exposure small: JPMorgan expects 55% annual volatility and models an 11.2% annual loss in its bad case. x.com  x.com  … Show more

Bitcoin may need sustained demand above all to outweigh selling pressure, since even favorable catalysts have coincided with declines. BTC fell despite rate cuts, a pro-crypto president, institutional adoption and rising liquidity; it now faces rate hikes, war in Iran, inflation, AI-bubble fears, quantum risks and AI-driven crypto hacks. x.com 

Gold's roughly 2% annual supply inflation compares badly with Bitcoin's diminishing supply inflation, a projection gold bugs refuse to make. A post the author replies to adds that about 95% of all Bitcoin has already been mined, that gold mining uses far more energy, and that gold's value against Bitcoin keeps falling over time. x.com 

Bitcoin is entering the late-cycle window in which it has historically massively outperformed gold, and the reversal is well underway. Bitcoin rose 22.94% against gold over the last 30 days and 45% since its March 2 bottom. Gold should mean-revert over the next 12 months as risk-on appetite returns, while bitcoin faces a demand tsunami against increasingly locked-up supply. x.com 

Gold could rise 1.5-2x against the US dollar, with bitcoin potentially doubling against gold, leaving anyone not holding risk assets badly exposed. x.com 

Bitcoin's recovery can continue because the crypto market has been little affected by uncertainty and its worst days are behind it. At this stage Bitcoin resembles gold in early 2025, with crypto recovering from its bottom and moving upward. x.com