Bitcoin has seen only a fraction of the flows rotating out of gold into it. Gold has yet to go through all its price-pain capitulation, and then comes a period of time pain. x.com 

A gold-trade unwind might be the real catalyst to send Bitcoin higher, rather than the AI-trade unwind many expect. The gold unwind is already happening: since late July, gold futures are down 0.7% while Bitcoin is up 26.5%. x.com  x.com 

Gold has formed a multi-year top at $5.6K and won't return there before 2030. It is in a high-timeframe distribution phase, with trillions of dollars rotating out of gold into US equities, bitcoin and Chinese equities, fueling the next risk-on environment. Silver showed a classic blow-off top, and the same applies to gold. x.com 

Gold could rise 1.5-2x against the US dollar, with bitcoin potentially doubling against gold, leaving anyone not holding risk assets badly exposed. x.com 

Bitcoin benefits as the risk of creating gold through alchemy has entered public consciousness. That perceived threat to gold's scarcity supports a long Bitcoin position as a persistent theme. x.com 

Gold's roughly 2% annual supply inflation compares badly with Bitcoin's diminishing supply inflation, a projection gold bugs refuse to make. A post the author replies to adds that about 95% of all Bitcoin has already been mined, that gold mining uses far more energy, and that gold's value against Bitcoin keeps falling over time. x.com 

Bitcoin is entering the late-cycle window in which it has historically massively outperformed gold, and the reversal is well underway. Bitcoin rose 22.94% against gold over the last 30 days and 45% since its March 2 bottom. Gold should mean-revert over the next 12 months as risk-on appetite returns, while bitcoin faces a demand tsunami against increasingly locked-up supply. x.com 

Bitcoin could draw big institutional money once it gets a real slot in bank model portfolios; a bullish research forecast alone is not enough. JPMorgan projects 10% annual returns over 10-15 years, ahead of US large-cap stocks at 7.5% and gold at 5.5%, but excludes Bitcoin from its main risk models because its links to other assets are unstable. Bitcoin could top $100,000, but keep exposure small: JPMorgan expects 55% annual volatility and models an 11.2% annual loss in its bad case. x.com  x.com  … Show more

Gold may have already peaked for this cycle as its momentum cools and capital starts rotating out the risk curve toward bitcoin. Historically, rotation out of gold signals confidence in riskier assets, and past cycles show gold rallies, then cools, then bitcoin enters its strongest phase. x.com 

Bitcoin's recovery can continue because the crypto market has been little affected by uncertainty and its worst days are behind it. At this stage Bitcoin resembles gold in early 2025, with crypto recovering from its bottom and moving upward. x.com