Zynx
Bitcoin Treasury Analyst, Strategic Adviser to Falconedge
Bitcoin is entering the late-cycle window in which it has historically massively outperformed gold, and the reversal is well underway. Bitcoin rose 22.94% against gold over the last 30 days and 45% since its March 2 bottom. Gold should mean-revert over the next 12 months as risk-on appetite returns, while bitcoin faces a demand tsunami against increasingly locked-up supply. x.comÂ
Bitcoin has likely already bottomed against gold, and the precious metals rally is over, contrary to @benjamincowen's call for further downside in the ratio. Most would-be Bitcoin sellers have already sold, while capital that rotated into gold is now being sold to cover costs tied to the Middle East conflict. Anything can happen, but there is no chance gold outperforms Bitcoin from here. x.com x.comÂ
A gold-trade unwind might be the real catalyst to send Bitcoin higher, rather than the AI-trade unwind many expect. The gold unwind is already happening: since late July, gold futures are down 0.7% while Bitcoin is up 26.5%. x.com x.comÂ
Bitcoin has seen only a fraction of the flows rotating out of gold into it. Gold has yet to go through all its price-pain capitulation, and then comes a period of time pain. x.comÂ
Gold could rise 1.5-2x against the US dollar, with bitcoin potentially doubling against gold, leaving anyone not holding risk assets badly exposed. x.comÂ
Bitcoin's recovery can continue because the crypto market has been little affected by uncertainty and its worst days are behind it. At this stage Bitcoin resembles gold in early 2025, with crypto recovering from its bottom and moving upward. x.comÂ
Bitcoin should outperform gold by at least 3x over the next few years as the BTC/gold ratio nears breakout. The pair has formed a multi-cycle ascending triangle since the 2017-18 cycle, and after about seven years of compression it sits near the apex; the longer a pattern consolidates, the bigger the breakout. Bitcoin is still massively underowned for its liquidity and market size. Gold should still do well as Fed money printing brings inflation, but bitcoin will be the faster horse. x.comÂ
Gold is extremely attractive now because rising market fear could make it a great hedge. It has fallen nearly 30% from its January all-time high and returned to the accumulation zone. If this level holds, expect a bounce soon. x.comÂ
Bitcoin benefits as the risk of creating gold through alchemy has entered public consciousness. That perceived threat to gold's scarcity supports a long Bitcoin position as a persistent theme. x.comÂ
Bitcoin, gold and Zcash should keep moving up because Bessent has telegraphed financial repression and will keep upping the ante. He said "I am the house now," so selling bitcoin is a bet that he simply gives up. With a cycle bottom in, early dips are some of the best opportunities looking 18 months ahead, and panic selling the first shakeout during the disbelief phase is the worst move. x.comÂ
Gold is set for a brutal reversal higher, because it is down almost 30% from its all-time high and everyone is positioned for more downside, exactly when such reversals begin. x.comÂ
Gold is under pressure because a sharply higher US 10-year yield, now 5.22%, makes holding a zero-yield asset expensive in opportunity cost. Gold fell 3% and silver 5% in a day after two weeks of rising yields. Gold has also moved inversely to bitcoin over the past week, a sign speculative flows are favoring crypto over real assets. x.comÂ
